Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCLEBiological Systems are defined by what they do rather than what theyare. Dynamic models for biological systems including organisms andorganizations can be built using the Decision Cycle or OODA Cycledeveloped by Col John Boyd.Amateurs talk tactics. Professionals talk logistics.Old Military AphorismHow do we get there from here? With all the talk about “the database problem”or “systems of systems,” is the world becoming too complex for the humanbrain to comprehend? I suggest that the world only seems that complex becausewe are basing our worldview and thought processes on what we learned inschool...based on Newtonian Science.Newtonian Science is based on the notion of understanding the physical universe.There has been much thought and discussion to step beyond Newton tobuild what is been termed “chaos theory” or “complexity theory.” But ultimately,the current notions of complexity science have failed because they are based onNewtonian assumptions...half-a-honeybee...functions with no history...and mostimportantly no decisionmaking. Therein lies the problem.Decisions are most usefully depicted as quantal and multi-state. One can startwith A and get either B or C, dependent on the environment. Therefore any modelingof a decisionmaking system based on the Newtonian assumptions that theworld is continuous and single-valued is inherently flawed and misleading.To model a world based on the Decision Cycle one needs to start with a set ofassumptions that recognizes decisions.Therefore, we need to look more closely at the Decision Cycle and see wherethe complementarity principle applies; that is, where our Industrial Age, Newtonianassumptions approximate the real world and where they are woefullyinadequate.If we redraw the Decision Cycle the way it works in an organization, we cansee not only why Newtonian thinking is limited for modeling the cycle but alsowhy current technology-based methods to improve the intelligence processhave failed.73
The Decision Cycle exists not only in the physical world but also in the cognitiveor organizational world and therefore transcends Newtonian thinking. In theObservation step of the cycle, the observer interacts directly with the physicalworld, performs measurements or senses physical entities, then converts thephysical reality into a symbolic representation of that reality. The meteorologistin Iceland in support of D-Day measured wind direction and speed, and barometricpressure but passed the data he collected in symbolic format (305o@25kt/28.5”Hg). The symbolic data was then passed to the meteorologist in Englandwho plotted all the symbols on a map, which is itself a symbolic representation ofthe physical world. He then oriented and presented all the data on the weathermap to General Eisenhower who decided on the best plan based on the symbolicworldview. Eisenhower then passed the decision in symbolic form, “Let’s go,”and finally the operational part of the organization took actions in the physicalworld which affected physical entities (the German Army or the environment).The input Observation and the output Action relate the organizational world tothe physical world, but the Orienting and Decisionmaking steps exist totally in anorganizational cognitive world based on totally non-Newtonian symbolic data,maps, plans, decisions, and orders.The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe Organizational WorldO O D AAction 1Observer 1Actor 1Sense 2O O D ADataO O D APlanO O D AOrdersO O D AAction2Sense 3Observer 2O O D AOrienteer(Analyst)Decision-makerActor 2O O D AAction3Observer 3Actor 3SenseObserveDataOrientPlanDecideOrdersActActionIntelligenceOperationsObservations aremade on thephysical world which are converted into symbolic datathat is compared against a symbolicmap to synthesize altern ative plans.A plan is decided onand operationalorders are given to i mplement the planin the physical world.74
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Joint Military Intelligence College
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The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
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orist groups half-a-world away mean
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intelligence and requires exhaustiv
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Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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decades before the conflict when a
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or pieces of information which were
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probably been given too little atte
Page 27 and 28: warfare the army that could bring t
Page 29 and 30: Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
Page 31 and 32: NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
Page 33 and 34: line proponent is likely to say,
Page 35 and 36: In the Industrial Age we based our
Page 37 and 38: Let me explain by comparing the New
Page 39 and 40: ight now we have a position (potent
Page 41 and 42: The take-home message here is that
Page 43 and 44: degrees and one I took six minutes
Page 45 and 46: MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
Page 47 and 48: Example: I see a large mammal with
Page 49 and 50: In WMD analysis, these distinctions
Page 51 and 52: Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
Page 53 and 54: Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
Page 55 and 56: Information Retrieval is Built on L
Page 57 and 58: to extract all the entities or a me
Page 59 and 60: That means that unless own ship man
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 63: analysis. A bigger database full of
Page 66 and 67: viduals subordinate their decisionm
Page 68 and 69: environment. In a world of limited
Page 70 and 71: account for any deviations from equ
Page 72 and 73: In summary:■ When the world will
Page 74 and 75: progress of that plan. If change is
Page 76 and 77: have been reached. “If they do A,
Page 80 and 81: Efforts to date to use information
Page 82 and 83: Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
Page 84 and 85: From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
Page 86 and 87: of enemy forces and that he prepare
Page 88 and 89: Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
Page 90 and 91: Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
Page 92 and 93: systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95: ing “power” plotted vertically
Page 96 and 97: Biological systems extract energy a
Page 98 and 99: NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
Page 100 and 101: ❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
Page 102 and 103: There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105: The two kinds of models are complem
Page 106 and 107: Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109: ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111: Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
Page 112 and 113: Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115: The redundancy of the detailed kind
Page 116 and 117: This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119: ■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
Page 120 and 121: Massive Data?” However, the Case
Page 122 and 123: When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125: Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 126 and 127: at an appropriate place in the time
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When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
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problem, warning involves an in-dep
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■ Observe the incoming reporting.
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In the past—through the Industria
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FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
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evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
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suggested guidance and models of Ma
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Using Homology Searching in Intelli
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ways can be identified in this way
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❏ Human intervention needed to ve
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Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
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Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
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When young children play soccer, th
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To make matters worse, even the col
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VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
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From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
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The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
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messenger to and from the edges of
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The organization of the IC in this
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Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
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From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
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Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
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Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
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tion, and it followed that they wer
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drawn from a generation that thinks
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mal or cultural population in terms
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■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
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By learning the lessons of Cynthia
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INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
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Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
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OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
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WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
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