Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

eporting to fill in the “aircraft delivery” process on the timeline but none on theSpecial Forces delivery process, it could be assessed as (1) a gap in intelligence,(2) excellent denial and deception by the adversary, or (3) a true lack of SpecialForces delivery. In MDA the analyst can begin to assess which is true by relatedorganizational or personal data such as aircraft unit training in suicide operations,vaccinations for some units but not others, visits by biologists to certain units, orsubordination of either unit to strategic commands rather than the normal tacticalchannels. Given the multiple linkages in time and organization of any part of aWMD program to another, some kind of linkage should become available evengiven denial and deception.Power talks. Realistic descriptions of the buildup of military poweroften convey a better sense of the likelihood of action than will aseries of estimative judgments which fail to include the militarydetails or reasons on which the assessment is based. To understandthe capability, and to be able to view it objectively, is a prerequisite tothe understanding of intent. 50MDA can help assess “Why?” “Who?” “What?” “When?” “Where?”“Why?” and “How?” Conventional methods of intelligence analysis that concentrateon weaponry and facilities can address “What” and “Where,” but have difficultyin assessing the rest. We have shown MDA can directly address all theremaining questions required to write a good story except “Why?”Assessing “Why” is clearly the most difficult question for any warning analystbecause it requires “getting inside the adversary’s head” to deduce his or herintentions. The major difficulty lies in that currently any assessment of intentmust be built totally on others’ assessments of intent. Usually assessments ofintent come from a source stating that he heard the target leader say something.Even if the statement was, “I plan to build a BW program,” the statement may notprovide a true assessment: the source may have heard a statement that was differentand interpreted to be the one given; or the leader could have uttered the statementbut not meant what he said; or the leader could have meant what he said butmay not have been able to make good on the plan for many reasons.While MDA does account for such statements in building assessments, it alsocan provide independent assessment of the intent. If the leader really was goingto build a BW program, those words would produce many more words in manydifferent venues involving planning conferences followed by organizationalmeetings...straight through all the steps in the timeline. Was the statement made50 Grabo, 24.120