Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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mistrust, yet that permit wide freedom for subordinates to exercise imaginationand initiative—yet, harmonize within intent of superior commanders. Benefit:internal simplicity that permits rapid adaptability.■ Yours TrulyOperate inside the adversary’s observation-orientation-decision-action loops toenmesh adversary in a world of uncertainty, doubt, mistrust, confusion, disorder,fear, panic chaos, ...and/or fold adversary back inside himself so that hecannot cope with events/efforts as they unfold. 21//Thinking in time is as important as thinking in space. Col Boyd make this messagevery clear on three levels: (1) history matters—we can learn from the strategicthinking of analysts all the way back to Sun Tzu; (2) the best military thinkerstalked processes over objects; and (2) the OODA Cycle exists in time, not space.From Fighting against Technologies to Out-Thinking Decisionmakers:History Matters IINewtonian Assumption: The world is single-valued.New Science Assumption: The world is multi-state.Complementarity Condition: Where the system being modeled is very far froma decision (bifurcation) point, one can use the Newtonian single-valued model.Example: An air conditioner thermostat is set at 70 degrees. For stable controland to ensure it is notconstantly cycling ONand OFF, the thermostatwill turn the airconditioner ON whenthe temperature rises to71 degrees and turn itoff when it has cooledthe room to 69 degrees.I have two photographsof the thermostat:one that I just tookthat shows a temperaturereading of 70ONA/CStateOFFAt 70 o thesystem can bewarming upwith the A/COFF or coolingdown with theA/C ON.69 o 71 o21 Col Boyd.Temperature35
degrees and one I took six minutes ago that shows the temperature at 71 degrees.Is the air conditioner ON or OFF?This is a problem that is totally unsolvable in the Newtonian paradigm whichdepends on instantaneous information to calculate its functions—and at 70degrees the air conditioner can be either ON or OFF dependent on its history. TheNewtonian paradigm will give a proper answer if the temperature is above 71degrees (always ON) or below 69 degrees (always OFF) because at those temperaturesthere is only one solution. However, within the controlling “dead-band”between 69 and 71 degrees, no answer is possible by Newtonian methods becausethere are two correct answers: the air conditioner is ON if it was above 71 degreesa few minutes ago and it’s cooling the room, or the air conditioner is OFF if itwas below 69 degrees a few minutes age and the room is warming up for the nextcooling cycle. In the New Science the answer is ON because it appears to be onthe cooling cycle based on the historical observation. Therefore, to describe amulti-state system—one that is capable of making decisions—Newtonian methodswork only when the decision already has been irreversibly made. And even inthe New Science, one will require a history of events to determine which of themultiple states the system is in now.Unfortunately, it’s even more complicated than that. The two photos show thatthe air conditioner is ON because it appears to be on the cooling cycle. However,that assumes that the length of the cooling cycle is more than six minutes; if thecooling cycle is only three minutes the first picture could have been taken right atthe beginning of a cooling cycle and the second could have been taken after theair conditioner was OFF and the temperature drifted back up to 70 degrees. To geta correct answer, even in the New Science, one will need enough pictures takenover at least three cycles to be confident in knowing what the cooling cycle lengthis...which will also will be different if the temperature outdoors is 85 degrees or110 degrees. History matters even more.Cold War Targeting: Shoot them all, and you’ll get the one you want. Withweaponry that could shoot faster and farther and with a bigger boom, the advantagewas always with the side that shot first. In the Industrial-Age, pre-emptivestrike was always the best answer. Therefore, intelligence was set to be verygeneric because fast reaction was key, and the old saying goes “nukes mean neverhaving to say you’ve missed.” Therefore, the missile officer did not need to knowanything more than, “If I get the order, I push the button, and a city disappears.”Afghan War Targeting: Only shoot the ones who have decided to shoot you.In the Information Age, one needs to know more about an opponent. In Afghanistanit was not a viable strategy to shoot anyone carrying a gun because everyonein Afghanistan carries a gun, or even to shoot at anyone who’s shooting36
Page 1 and 2: Joint Military Intelligence College
Page 3 and 4: The Joint Military Intelligence Col
Page 5 and 6: CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
Page 7 and 8: appreciate other distinctive elemen
Page 9 and 10: In addition to his promoting the in
Page 11 and 12: ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
Page 13 and 14: “butter now” to build a strong
Page 15 and 16: orist groups half-a-world away mean
Page 17 and 18: intelligence and requires exhaustiv
Page 19 and 20: Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 21 and 22: decades before the conflict when a
Page 23 and 24: or pieces of information which were
Page 25 and 26: probably been given too little atte
Page 27 and 28: warfare the army that could bring t
Page 29 and 30: Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
Page 31 and 32: NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
Page 33 and 34: line proponent is likely to say,
Page 35 and 36: In the Industrial Age we based our
Page 37 and 38: Let me explain by comparing the New
Page 39 and 40: ight now we have a position (potent
Page 41: The take-home message here is that
Page 45 and 46: MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
Page 47 and 48: Example: I see a large mammal with
Page 49 and 50: In WMD analysis, these distinctions
Page 51 and 52: Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
Page 53 and 54: Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
Page 55 and 56: Information Retrieval is Built on L
Page 57 and 58: to extract all the entities or a me
Page 59 and 60: That means that unless own ship man
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 63: analysis. A bigger database full of
Page 66 and 67: viduals subordinate their decisionm
Page 68 and 69: environment. In a world of limited
Page 70 and 71: account for any deviations from equ
Page 72 and 73: In summary:■ When the world will
Page 74 and 75: progress of that plan. If change is
Page 76 and 77: have been reached. “If they do A,
Page 78 and 79: Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
Page 80 and 81: Efforts to date to use information
Page 82 and 83: Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
Page 84 and 85: From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
Page 86 and 87: of enemy forces and that he prepare
Page 88 and 89: Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
Page 90 and 91: Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
Page 92 and 93:
systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95:
ing “power” plotted vertically
Page 96 and 97:
Biological systems extract energy a
Page 98 and 99:
NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
Page 100 and 101:
❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
Page 102 and 103:
There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105:
The two kinds of models are complem
Page 106 and 107:
Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109:
ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111:
Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
Page 112 and 113:
Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115:
The redundancy of the detailed kind
Page 116 and 117:
This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119:
■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
Page 120 and 121:
Massive Data?” However, the Case
Page 122 and 123:
When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125:
Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 126 and 127:
at an appropriate place in the time
Page 128 and 129:
When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
Page 130 and 131:
problem, warning involves an in-dep
Page 132 and 133:
■ Observe the incoming reporting.
Page 134 and 135:
In the past—through the Industria
Page 136 and 137:
FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
Page 138 and 139:
evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
Page 140 and 141:
suggested guidance and models of Ma
Page 142 and 143:
Using Homology Searching in Intelli
Page 144 and 145:
ways can be identified in this way
Page 146 and 147:
❏ Human intervention needed to ve
Page 148 and 149:
Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
Page 150 and 151:
Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153:
When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155:
To make matters worse, even the col
Page 156 and 157:
VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159:
From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
Page 160 and 161:
The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
Page 162 and 163:
messenger to and from the edges of
Page 164 and 165:
The organization of the IC in this
Page 166 and 167:
Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
Page 168 and 169:
From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
Page 170 and 171:
Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
Page 172 and 173:
Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
Page 174 and 175:
tion, and it followed that they wer
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drawn from a generation that thinks
Page 178 and 179:
mal or cultural population in terms
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■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
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By learning the lessons of Cynthia
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INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
Page 186 and 187:
Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
Page 188 and 189:
OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
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WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
Page 192 and 193:
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