Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...
Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...
Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...
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degrees and one I took six minutes ago that shows <strong>the</strong> temperature at 71 degrees.Is <strong>the</strong> air conditioner ON or OFF?This is a problem that is totally unsolvable in <strong>the</strong> Newtonian paradigm whichdepends on instantaneous in<strong>for</strong>mation to calculate its functions—and at 70degrees <strong>the</strong> air conditioner can be ei<strong>the</strong>r ON or OFF dependent on its history. TheNewtonian paradigm will give a proper answer if <strong>the</strong> temperature is above 71degrees (always ON) or below 69 degrees (always OFF) because at those temperatures<strong>the</strong>re is only one solution. However, within <strong>the</strong> controlling “dead-band”between 69 and 71 degrees, no answer is possible by Newtonian methods because<strong>the</strong>re are two correct answers: <strong>the</strong> air conditioner is ON if it was above 71 degreesa few minutes ago and it’s cooling <strong>the</strong> room, or <strong>the</strong> air conditioner is OFF if itwas below 69 degrees a few minutes age and <strong>the</strong> room is warming up <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> nextcooling cycle. In <strong>the</strong> New Science <strong>the</strong> answer is ON because it appears to be on<strong>the</strong> cooling cycle based on <strong>the</strong> historical observation. There<strong>for</strong>e, to describe amulti-state system—one that is capable of making decisions—Newtonian methodswork only when <strong>the</strong> decision already has been irreversibly made. And even in<strong>the</strong> New Science, one will require a history of events to determine which of <strong>the</strong>multiple states <strong>the</strong> system is in now.Un<strong>for</strong>tunately, it’s even more complicated than that. The two photos show that<strong>the</strong> air conditioner is ON because it appears to be on <strong>the</strong> cooling cycle. However,that assumes that <strong>the</strong> length of <strong>the</strong> cooling cycle is more than six minutes; if <strong>the</strong>cooling cycle is only three minutes <strong>the</strong> first picture could have been taken right at<strong>the</strong> beginning of a cooling cycle and <strong>the</strong> second could have been taken after <strong>the</strong>air conditioner was OFF and <strong>the</strong> temperature drifted back up to 70 degrees. To geta correct answer, even in <strong>the</strong> New Science, one will need enough pictures takenover at least three cycles to be confident in knowing what <strong>the</strong> cooling cycle lengthis...which will also will be different if <strong>the</strong> temperature outdoors is 85 degrees or110 degrees. History matters even more.Cold War Targeting: Shoot <strong>the</strong>m all, and you’ll get <strong>the</strong> one you want. Withweaponry that could shoot faster and far<strong>the</strong>r and with a bigger boom, <strong>the</strong> advantagewas always with <strong>the</strong> side that shot first. In <strong>the</strong> Industrial-<strong>Age</strong>, pre-emptivestrike was always <strong>the</strong> best answer. There<strong>for</strong>e, intelligence was set to be verygeneric because fast reaction was key, and <strong>the</strong> old saying goes “nukes mean neverhaving to say you’ve missed.” There<strong>for</strong>e, <strong>the</strong> missile officer did not need to knowanything more than, “If I get <strong>the</strong> order, I push <strong>the</strong> button, and a city disappears.”Afghan War Targeting: Only shoot <strong>the</strong> ones who have decided to shoot you.In <strong>the</strong> In<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>Age</strong>, one needs to know more about an opponent. In Afghanistanit was not a viable strategy to shoot anyone carrying a gun because everyonein Afghanistan carries a gun, or even to shoot at anyone who’s shooting36