Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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drawn from a generation that thinks computers are glorified typewriters andbiology is about cutting up dead cats.Projecting the process of the Information-Age reorientation in the IC, one canpredict that RMA has not yet begun—mainly due to a lack of leadership comfortablein the Information-Age paradigm. One can project that the “Mahan” of thecoming orientation revolution has not yet “written his book” (or more likelyposted his website) because such a “Teacher” needs to be someone who couldobserve and reorient in a world dominated by Newtonian thinking but who “grewup” in the era of TV and computers. Cynthia Grabo and Col Boyd were almostthere; they both observed and oriented in an Information-Age world dominatedby Industrial-Age thinking; but neither were children of the Information Age.Projecting from the sail-to-steam and segregation-to-integration revolutions inthe Navy leads to a rather gloomy picture. The Information-Age MTR began inthe 1960s, but the RMA is just beginning as young leadership—class of 1975 orlater—who are younger than fifty, begin to build on the questioning started byforward-leaning analysts like Grabo and Boyd to orient and build a plan for reorientingthe IC. Unfortunately, current attempts at integrating the IC by “solvingthe database problem” and building better analysis by building bigger and bettersatellites” bring to mind the era of the steam sloop or the era of an “integrated”Naval Academy that only graduates one or two Black Midshipman a year.The completion of RMC for the Information-Age orientation revolution—withthe advent of an equivalent indicator such as the “Great White Fleet” or the firstBlack Chief of Naval Operations—likely will not come for another two or threedecades. That will require the rise of an Information-Age generation of leadership(currently still in college) who will be taught quantum thinking by the studentsof the Cynthia Grabo, Col Boyd, and other forward-leaning thinkers. Canwe afford to wait that long?173
Chapter 14CAN WE SHIFT A PARADIGM IN A SINGLE GENERATION?Potentially we can short-circuit the slow pace of the MTR-RMA-RMCprogression to begin to build an Information-Age IC by beginning aprogram to capture the knowledge of senior analysts and to educatethe rising analytical leadership to reorient the IC. But we must takestep to do so now or the opportunity will be lost for at least anotherdecade.Potentially there exist things we can do now to short-circuit the slow pace ofMTR-RMA-RMC progression. In my hypothesis for reorienting the IC, I indicatedthat it is much more important for the IC to build a pool of historians,librarians, and curators than to continue spending its budget on better technologysuch as new satellites and next-generation computers. Given that the current generationof leadership still thinks in the old Industrial-Age, “sailing ship” paradigm,it is unlikely that they will place an over-riding emphasis on fixing thebroken Orientation step in the national OODA Cycle. Since they are ingrainedwith an over-riding emphasis on Action driven directly by Observation, the bestwe can hope for in at least the next decade is the equivalent of a “steam sloop”—where we will acknowledge the new paradigm without letting go of the old. TheRMA will not come from the top down, but perhaps it can be hastened from thebottom up.Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way!Old Navy SayingThe key to reorienting the IC is building a cadre of WMD and terrorism analystswho are subject-matter-experts on the history of their particular country orterrorist group as well as their particular WMD program, who routinely use MDA(or a more-developed successor) and who are comfortable doing analysis andproduction based on the hyperword. For convenience, I’ll call these the First-Generation Reorienters. At this point in history, such analysts are virtually impossibleto find. If we leave the process of training new ones to the natural changes inIC-wide leadership, it will take at least two generations. However, given a curiousdemographic distribution of analysts in the IC, there may be a way both toremember that history matters and to reorient to Information-Age thinking if weact very soon.Demography is an historical discipline used by both biologists and politicalscientists to study populations and to predict the future characteristics of an ani-175
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Joint Military Intelligence College
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The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
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orist groups half-a-world away mean
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intelligence and requires exhaustiv
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Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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decades before the conflict when a
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or pieces of information which were
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probably been given too little atte
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warfare the army that could bring t
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Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
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NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
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line proponent is likely to say,
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In the Industrial Age we based our
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Let me explain by comparing the New
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ight now we have a position (potent
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The take-home message here is that
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degrees and one I took six minutes
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MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
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Example: I see a large mammal with
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In WMD analysis, these distinctions
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Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
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Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
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Information Retrieval is Built on L
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to extract all the entities or a me
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That means that unless own ship man
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Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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analysis. A bigger database full of
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viduals subordinate their decisionm
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environment. In a world of limited
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account for any deviations from equ
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In summary:■ When the world will
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progress of that plan. If change is
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have been reached. “If they do A,
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Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
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Efforts to date to use information
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Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
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From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
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of enemy forces and that he prepare
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Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
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Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
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systems is that they are organized
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ing “power” plotted vertically
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Biological systems extract energy a
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NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
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❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
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There are two basic kinds of method
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The two kinds of models are complem
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Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
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ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
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Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
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Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
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The redundancy of the detailed kind
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This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
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■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
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Massive Data?” However, the Case
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When the first pass at the known en
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Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
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Page 130 and 131: problem, warning involves an in-dep
Page 132 and 133: ■ Observe the incoming reporting.
Page 134 and 135: In the past—through the Industria
Page 136 and 137: FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
Page 138 and 139: evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
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Page 142 and 143: Using Homology Searching in Intelli
Page 144 and 145: ways can be identified in this way
Page 146 and 147: ❏ Human intervention needed to ve
Page 148 and 149: Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
Page 150 and 151: Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153: When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155: To make matters worse, even the col
Page 156 and 157: VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159: From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
Page 160 and 161: The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
Page 162 and 163: messenger to and from the edges of
Page 164 and 165: The organization of the IC in this
Page 166 and 167: Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
Page 168 and 169: From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
Page 170 and 171: Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
Page 172 and 173: Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
Page 174 and 175: tion, and it followed that they wer
Page 178 and 179: mal or cultural population in terms
Page 180 and 181: ■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
Page 182 and 183: By learning the lessons of Cynthia
Page 184 and 185: INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
Page 186 and 187: Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
Page 188 and 189: OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
Page 190 and 191: WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
Page 192 and 193: Other Books from the Joint Military
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