Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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account for any deviations from equilibrium, such as an incrementally growingarms race, the model will not change nor must the plan. Since tomorrow’s planwill then look much like today’s, the plan should be made to optimize the choiceof guns or butter for today—neglecting tomorrow because tomorrow will notchange enough to change the plan. Once the plan has been made, the hierarchywill implement it best.Intelligence or operations? Once the plan is made in a static world using aNewtonian model, intelligence is only needed to check the plan to look for minordeviations that need to be corrected. Therefore, under such conditions, the bulk ofan organism’s or organization’s resources should be dedicated to operations. In astatic world, current intelligence is most critical to provide constant but rathereasily assessed feedback to ensure that things are going according to the plan.In summary:■ When the world is not changing and a plan has already been made, it isbest to maximize resources used for operations to implement that plan.A hierarchy is best to do so.■ The organization in a static world only needs enough intelligenceresources to monitor that the plan is being implemented properly.■ Current intelligence provides data to assess that the current plan is satisfactoryfor current operations.■ In a static world, current intelligence is all that is needed.In times of change— when tomorrow’s world will be incrementally differentfrom today’s—a command network, an organization that balances a networkand a hierarchy, is best. And in times of incremental change tactical warningbecomes most important.The second possibility is that of a two player model, quantum and multi-state.Here there are only two players in the game but the other player will make decisionsduring the course of the game. Since Newtonian models cannot account fordecisionmaking, these are conditions that transcend Newtonian models even ifthey are two-player zero-sum-games. In a world where the adversary is makingdecisions, as in changing its plans, but those decisions are predictable, the organizationcan include contingency plans within its overall plan. For example, theorganization has assessed that the adversary will begin hostilities and has structureditself to defeat the adversary when the attack does come. Thus a plan wasconstructed that accounts for operations prior to hostile action and operationsduring hostile action. A hybrid organization, which we will call a command network,provides the best solution to the three tradeoffs under these conditions.64
Guns or butter? Since theadversary’s overall plan—hostileaction—is assessed, theplan has already accounted fora current mix of guns and butter.Therefore, resources arebest allocated toward implementingthe plan; this is bestdone by a hierarchy. However,during the time period prior tothe commencement of hostilities,tactical warning isneeded to provide decisionmakersoptions on how best toreact to the commencement ofhostilities. Therefore, a largeenough intelligence networkmust be built into the organizationto provide good prospectsfor tactical warning.Information Flow in a HierarchyO O D AIndividual 2O O D A O O D AIndividual 1Individual 3OrganizationHierarchyO O D AIndividual 4O O DAToday or tomorrow? In this context, today or tomorrow is relevant mainlyto the moment that hostilities begin. Therefore, the plan needs to consider multiplecontingencies that include alternative actions dependent on when andwhere hostilities commence as well as the possibility of pre-emptive strike asan option within the plan. However, under these conditions, all planningbecomes tactical because plans are made for allocation of current resourcesdecided in the overall plan.Intelligence or operations? Under these conditions, the organization must beflexible. Since a war is imminent, the organization must be set up as a hierarchywhich is most effective once the war starts—at which point the situation revertsto a two-player-zero-sum game with no change in opponent plans (as long as thewar is on) as described above. However, until hostilities begin (or if the opponentmakes significant tactical changes in plan during the war), the organization musthave the ability to provide tactical warning. During this pre-war phase at least, anintelligence infrastructure must be fielded to at least answer the tactical questionsof when and where the opponent will attack. Thus, an intelligence network mustbe built which functions as closely as possible to a pure network to provide thebest intelligence, but within a hierarchical framework to be able to support decisionsand actions in support of the plan.65
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Joint Military Intelligence College
Page 3 and 4:
The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
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orist groups half-a-world away mean
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intelligence and requires exhaustiv
Page 19 and 20: Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 21 and 22: decades before the conflict when a
Page 23 and 24: or pieces of information which were
Page 25 and 26: probably been given too little atte
Page 27 and 28: warfare the army that could bring t
Page 29 and 30: Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
Page 31 and 32: NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
Page 33 and 34: line proponent is likely to say,
Page 35 and 36: In the Industrial Age we based our
Page 37 and 38: Let me explain by comparing the New
Page 39 and 40: ight now we have a position (potent
Page 41 and 42: The take-home message here is that
Page 43 and 44: degrees and one I took six minutes
Page 45 and 46: MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
Page 47 and 48: Example: I see a large mammal with
Page 49 and 50: In WMD analysis, these distinctions
Page 51 and 52: Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
Page 53 and 54: Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
Page 55 and 56: Information Retrieval is Built on L
Page 57 and 58: to extract all the entities or a me
Page 59 and 60: That means that unless own ship man
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 63: analysis. A bigger database full of
Page 66 and 67: viduals subordinate their decisionm
Page 68 and 69: environment. In a world of limited
Page 72 and 73: In summary:■ When the world will
Page 74 and 75: progress of that plan. If change is
Page 76 and 77: have been reached. “If they do A,
Page 78 and 79: Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
Page 80 and 81: Efforts to date to use information
Page 82 and 83: Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
Page 84 and 85: From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
Page 86 and 87: of enemy forces and that he prepare
Page 88 and 89: Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
Page 90 and 91: Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
Page 92 and 93: systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95: ing “power” plotted vertically
Page 96 and 97: Biological systems extract energy a
Page 98 and 99: NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
Page 100 and 101: ❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
Page 102 and 103: There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105: The two kinds of models are complem
Page 106 and 107: Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109: ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111: Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
Page 112 and 113: Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115: The redundancy of the detailed kind
Page 116 and 117: This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119: ■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
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Massive Data?” However, the Case
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When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125:
Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
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at an appropriate place in the time
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When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
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problem, warning involves an in-dep
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■ Observe the incoming reporting.
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In the past—through the Industria
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FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
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evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
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suggested guidance and models of Ma
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Using Homology Searching in Intelli
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ways can be identified in this way
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❏ Human intervention needed to ve
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Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
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Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
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When young children play soccer, th
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To make matters worse, even the col
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VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
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From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
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The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
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messenger to and from the edges of
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The organization of the IC in this
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Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
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From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
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Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
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Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
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tion, and it followed that they wer
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drawn from a generation that thinks
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mal or cultural population in terms
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■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
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By learning the lessons of Cynthia
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INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
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Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
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OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
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WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
Page 192 and 193:
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