Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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ecause they’re not always shooting at you. No simple “If X then Y” Newtonianrules are possible when party goers at a wedding will shoot guns in the air thatappear at first glance like Taliban gunfire. One needs to model the decisionmakersto know which state they’re in before firing: the “shooting in the air at a wedding”state, or the “shooting at incoming aircraft” state—and that kind ofknowledge requires history. In the Information Age, proportional and logicalresponse must be the norm.Intelligence analysts are expected to predict future events and trends based onobservations of the world. Biological systems—be they individual organisms likebacteria or humans or collections of organisms like countries or even the toolsconstructed by human organisms—make decisions and control their own behaviorin response to their environment. In our simple example, we require at leastthree control cycles worth of data (dependent on today’s outdoor temperature)plus two additional photographs to confidently assess whether the air conditioneris ON or OFF. And that is for a single thermostat, which can only turn ON or OFFin response to a single-input temperature sensor.The take-home message here is that decisionmaking systems—as simple asthermostats or as complex as states building WMD—are multi-state and cannotbe calculated in the Newtonian paradigm unless they are far enough away fromthe particular set of conditions that will trigger the decision. The New Sciencemust, therefore, account for systems that can exist in different states under differentconditions. One cannot predict what a system will do unless one knows whatit did in the past. And once again—History Matters! The New Science must beable to model the decisionmaking process.Industrial-Age intelligence was based on Newtonian models that totallyignored decisionmaking. Therefore, there was only one best strategy—preemptivestrike—for any adversary because the adversary’s decisionmaking processwas not even considered in defining policy, and winning was only dependenton our own decisions and actions.Information-Age intelligence must be based on quantum models that canaccount for the adversary’s decisionmaking process. Since an adversary’s “state”depends not only on what he is trying to accomplish but also where he is in thatdecision loop; the Information-Age analyst must be able to provide differentoptions that depend on the adversary’s different “states” as well as an estimate ofwhich “state” he is currently in—and hopefully an estimate of which state wewould like to push him into.37
MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal arrangements that hinder interactionwith the external world.Instead■ Arrange settings and circumstances so that leaders and subordinates alike aregiven opportunity to continuously interact with external world, and each other,in order to more quickly make many-sided implicit cross-referencing projections,empathies, correlations, and rejections as well as create the similarimages or impressions, hence a similar implicit orientation, needed to form anorganic whole.Why?■ A similar implicit orientation for commanders and subordinates alike willallow them to://❏ Diminish their friction and reduce time, thereby permit them to:❏ Exploit variety/rapidity while maintaining harmony/initiative, therebypermit them to:❏ Get inside the adversary’s O-O-D-A loops, thereby:❏ Magnify adversary’s friction, and stretch-out his time (for a favorable mismatchin friction and time), thereby:❏ Deny the adversary the opportunity to cope with events/efforts as theyunfold. 22The Newtonian paradigm only deals with the physical world. The New Sciencemust deal with the conceptual world. Even as simple a control system as athermostat uses an OODA Cycle to Observe the world, Orient against its internalmodel whether that world is too hot or cold enough, Decide whether the airconditioner should be ON or OFF, and Act to ensure that it is in the properstate. Therefore, we need not only to understand the adversary’s OODA Cyclebut our own as well before we can provide the proper orientation to make thebest decision.22 Col Boyd.38
Page 1 and 2: Joint Military Intelligence College
Page 3 and 4: The Joint Military Intelligence Col
Page 5 and 6: CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
Page 7 and 8: appreciate other distinctive elemen
Page 9 and 10: In addition to his promoting the in
Page 11 and 12: ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
Page 13 and 14: “butter now” to build a strong
Page 15 and 16: orist groups half-a-world away mean
Page 17 and 18: intelligence and requires exhaustiv
Page 19 and 20: Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 21 and 22: decades before the conflict when a
Page 23 and 24: or pieces of information which were
Page 25 and 26: probably been given too little atte
Page 27 and 28: warfare the army that could bring t
Page 29 and 30: Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
Page 31 and 32: NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
Page 33 and 34: line proponent is likely to say,
Page 35 and 36: In the Industrial Age we based our
Page 37 and 38: Let me explain by comparing the New
Page 39 and 40: ight now we have a position (potent
Page 41 and 42: The take-home message here is that
Page 43: degrees and one I took six minutes
Page 47 and 48: Example: I see a large mammal with
Page 49 and 50: In WMD analysis, these distinctions
Page 51 and 52: Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
Page 53 and 54: Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
Page 55 and 56: Information Retrieval is Built on L
Page 57 and 58: to extract all the entities or a me
Page 59 and 60: That means that unless own ship man
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 63: analysis. A bigger database full of
Page 66 and 67: viduals subordinate their decisionm
Page 68 and 69: environment. In a world of limited
Page 70 and 71: account for any deviations from equ
Page 72 and 73: In summary:■ When the world will
Page 74 and 75: progress of that plan. If change is
Page 76 and 77: have been reached. “If they do A,
Page 78 and 79: Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
Page 80 and 81: Efforts to date to use information
Page 82 and 83: Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
Page 84 and 85: From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
Page 86 and 87: of enemy forces and that he prepare
Page 88 and 89: Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
Page 90 and 91: Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
Page 92 and 93: systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95:
ing “power” plotted vertically
Page 96 and 97:
Biological systems extract energy a
Page 98 and 99:
NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
Page 100 and 101:
❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
Page 102 and 103:
There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105:
The two kinds of models are complem
Page 106 and 107:
Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109:
ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111:
Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
Page 112 and 113:
Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115:
The redundancy of the detailed kind
Page 116 and 117:
This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119:
■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
Page 120 and 121:
Massive Data?” However, the Case
Page 122 and 123:
When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125:
Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 126 and 127:
at an appropriate place in the time
Page 128 and 129:
When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
Page 130 and 131:
problem, warning involves an in-dep
Page 132 and 133:
■ Observe the incoming reporting.
Page 134 and 135:
In the past—through the Industria
Page 136 and 137:
FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
Page 138 and 139:
evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
Page 140 and 141:
suggested guidance and models of Ma
Page 142 and 143:
Using Homology Searching in Intelli
Page 144 and 145:
ways can be identified in this way
Page 146 and 147:
❏ Human intervention needed to ve
Page 148 and 149:
Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
Page 150 and 151:
Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153:
When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155:
To make matters worse, even the col
Page 156 and 157:
VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159:
From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
Page 160 and 161:
The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
Page 162 and 163:
messenger to and from the edges of
Page 164 and 165:
The organization of the IC in this
Page 166 and 167:
Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
Page 168 and 169:
From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
Page 170 and 171:
Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
Page 172 and 173:
Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
Page 174 and 175:
tion, and it followed that they wer
Page 176 and 177:
drawn from a generation that thinks
Page 178 and 179:
mal or cultural population in terms
Page 180 and 181:
■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
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By learning the lessons of Cynthia
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INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
Page 186 and 187:
Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
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OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
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WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
Page 192 and 193:
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