Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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The organization of the IC in this new worldview is the same, only the orientationis different and, therefore, lines of communication that enable the organizationsto work as an “orientation team” are also different.Again, it is important to note that the Orientation step is the one that needs fixingand that Cynthia Grabo’s “strategic warning,” Col Boyd’s “orientation,” andmy “models” are different views on the same important concept—an organizationcan only make decisions that are as smart as the common worldview that isshared by the “Wisemen” of that organization.How will this new kind of Orientation for the national OODA Cycle occur?In the reoriented IC, intelligence will be hypothesis-driven (employing Top-Down models) rather than collection-driven (employing Bottom-Up models). Itwill also be proactive (building a worldview by modeling wherever the hypothesistesting Research Cycle leads) rather than reactive (building a worldview inresponse to customer tasking).The key is providing the all-source analysts the time and tools they need tobuild an MDA model of the target nations or organizations. This common modelis then shared upward and downward in the old information flow pattern but withadded links. The common MDA model is posted as a website on Intelink basedon the 6-D hierarchical MDA model.Experiments in posting an MDA WMD model on Intelink empowered everyoneacross the IC who was part of the project. But this depended on the all-sourceanalysts to provide guidance and orientation:■ Since DIA took responsibility for posting the common model on an Intelinksite, CIA and DIA analysts needed to work more closely. DIA needed toensure that the model posted represented community consensus (or noted communitydisagreements where needed), and CIA needed to monitor the site toagain ensure that the site reflected common assessments but also to ensure thatthey reflected reporting above the classification of the site (since such sensitivereporting is usually in the realm of the CIA analyst).■ The first level of intelligence posted was strategic analysis that provided quickand easy availability of key assessments to both civilian and military policymakers.■ The second level of intelligence posted contained detailed descriptions fromMDA that included organizational histories and resumes of key WMD personnelincluding those that were assessed to be only dual-use and not currently apart of the WMD program. This level of information sharing helped provide161
detailed feedback to the collection analysts and collectors for much improvedcollection targeting.■ The most surprising result was that after about a year into the experiment, theall-source analysts began getting fewer questions and fewer taskers from customerseven though MDA concentrates on building models rather than directlyaddressing customer concerns. The proactive history and context of the WMDprogram is so much more detailed using MDA that new information is mucheasier to orient within that larger context. Thus, questions from customerscould usually be answered by providing the URL to the appropriate Intelinkposting. Thereafter, the number of questions dropped dramatically, but theones that came in were much more informed because those customers alreadyhad a broader context from what was posted on Intelink.The two-year IC-wide MDA effort has led to the identification of four new biotechnologyfacilities and localization of four known BW facilities in the targetcountry as well as facilitating building an organizational chart and list of keyplayers in that country’s BW program.I suggest that the current IC organization is adequate to bring intelligence intothe Information Age. By reorienting the lines of communication from hierarchical(taskers flowing down and reporting flowing up) to network-like, the IC canprovide strategic warning in a world of WMD and terrorism. The key to that isconcentrating on fixing the Orientation Step in the national OODA Cycle. Andthe key to that is empowering the collection analyst to become the “Wiseman” forObserving and empowering the all-source analyst to become the “Wiseman” forOrienting.162
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Joint Military Intelligence College
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The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
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orist groups half-a-world away mean
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intelligence and requires exhaustiv
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Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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decades before the conflict when a
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or pieces of information which were
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probably been given too little atte
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warfare the army that could bring t
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Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
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NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
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line proponent is likely to say,
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In the Industrial Age we based our
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Let me explain by comparing the New
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ight now we have a position (potent
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The take-home message here is that
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degrees and one I took six minutes
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MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
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Example: I see a large mammal with
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In WMD analysis, these distinctions
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Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
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Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
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Information Retrieval is Built on L
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to extract all the entities or a me
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That means that unless own ship man
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Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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analysis. A bigger database full of
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viduals subordinate their decisionm
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environment. In a world of limited
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account for any deviations from equ
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In summary:■ When the world will
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progress of that plan. If change is
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have been reached. “If they do A,
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Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
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Efforts to date to use information
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Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
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From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
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of enemy forces and that he prepare
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Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
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Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
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systems is that they are organized
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ing “power” plotted vertically
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Biological systems extract energy a
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NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
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❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
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There are two basic kinds of method
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The two kinds of models are complem
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Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
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ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
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Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
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Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115: The redundancy of the detailed kind
Page 116 and 117: This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119: ■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
Page 120 and 121: Massive Data?” However, the Case
Page 122 and 123: When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125: Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 126 and 127: at an appropriate place in the time
Page 128 and 129: When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
Page 130 and 131: problem, warning involves an in-dep
Page 132 and 133: ■ Observe the incoming reporting.
Page 134 and 135: In the past—through the Industria
Page 136 and 137: FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
Page 138 and 139: evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
Page 140 and 141: suggested guidance and models of Ma
Page 142 and 143: Using Homology Searching in Intelli
Page 144 and 145: ways can be identified in this way
Page 146 and 147: ❏ Human intervention needed to ve
Page 148 and 149: Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
Page 150 and 151: Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153: When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155: To make matters worse, even the col
Page 156 and 157: VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159: From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
Page 160 and 161: The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
Page 162 and 163: messenger to and from the edges of
Page 166 and 167: Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
Page 168 and 169: From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
Page 170 and 171: Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
Page 172 and 173: Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
Page 174 and 175: tion, and it followed that they wer
Page 176 and 177: drawn from a generation that thinks
Page 178 and 179: mal or cultural population in terms
Page 180 and 181: ■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
Page 182 and 183: By learning the lessons of Cynthia
Page 184 and 185: INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
Page 186 and 187: Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
Page 188 and 189: OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
Page 190 and 191: WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
Page 192 and 193: Other Books from the Joint Military
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