Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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the world in both space and time are changing the very nature of intelligence.Therefore, I will draw heavily on Ms. Grabo’s thoughts—sometimes to reiteratetimeless lessons on warning intelligence and sometimes to indicate the need foran Information-Age addition to her Industrial-Age argument.Warning intelligence at the strategic level, or as it is sometimes called“indications intelligence,” is largely a post-World War II development.More specifically, it was a product of the early days of the Cold War,when we began to perceive that the Soviet Union and other communistcountries were embarked on courses inimical to the interests of the FreeWorld and which could lead to surprise actions or open aggression.Enemy actions in World War II, such as the Japanese attack on Pearl Harborin 1941, had dispelled many of the conventional or historical conceptsabout how wars begin. The fear that America’s enemies once againmight undertake devastating, surprise military action—and without priordeclaration of war or other conventional warning—had become very real.The advent of modern weapons and long-range delivery systems furtherincreased the need for warning to avoid surprise attack. 1Cynthia GraboAnticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic WarningAs indicated by Ms. Grabo above, “warning intelligence” got its start inresponse to the shattering of the old paradigm for strategic warning, when theoceans could no longer serve as a tripwire. In the past we could afford surprise.While Pearl Harbor was tactically devastating, it was not strategically devastating.Indeed, Admiral Yamamoto, the commander of the Japanese fleet at PearlHarbor was believed to have realized the strategic mistake in that attack in saying,“We have just roused a sleeping giant.” In an age of WMD even tactical surpriseis not an allowable option because a single attack with a single biological ornuclear weapon can potentially be worse than multiple Pearl Harbors.In an era of asymmetric warfare in which our national security and wellbeing can be seriously threatened by hostile groups as well as nations, itis imperative that lessons from the past not be forgotten but brought up todate and the discipline of warning reinvigorated. Warning intelligencediffers significantly from current intelligence and the preparation of longrangeestimates. It accepts the presumption of surprise and incomplete1 Cynthia M. Grabo, Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, ed. Jan Goldman(Washington DC: Joint Military Intelligence College’s Center for Strategic Intelligence Research,2002), 1. Cited hereafter as Grabo.5
intelligence and requires exhaustive research upon which to build thecase for specific warning. 2LTG James Williams (Ret.), USAFFormer Director, Defense Intelligence AgencyThe new Directorate for Analysis will be charged with transformingour analysis from descriptive assessments to complex judgmentalanalysis required to identify vulnerabilities and provide options forpolicymakers and warfighters. 3VADM Lowell E. JacobyDirector, Defense Intelligence AgencyWarning-oriented intelligence reflects a compelling need—unprecedentedprior to the development of WMD—not to be surprised. By not being surprised, Imean that analysts must be able to provide detailed enough judgments—withsupporting reporting—so that both the warfighter and the policymaker can anticipatethe actions of potential adversaries and take timely action to support U.S.interests. In short, it is incumbent on the Information-Age analyst to provide boththe warfighter and policymaker with options: On the basis of what the adversaryhas the capability to do, how will he likely act? What actions can we take to stop,change, or respond to those actions, and what are the probable consequences ofthose actions?To do this, the Information-Age warning analyst must be able to peer into thefuture with a level of granularity many times more detailed than ever requiredbefore. Rather than providing targeting to the warfighter at the level of which cityor military base contains the threat, the Information-age analyst must be able totell the warfighter which building half-a-world-away contains the nuclear deviceor BW fermenter so that he can interdict that facility with a single smart bomb orcruise missile with minimal collateral damage. Rather than giving the policymakerbroad-brush descriptions of a country’s WMD capabilities, the Information-Ageanalyst must be able to tell the policymaker exactly where that state isprocuring the materials to build that nuclear or biological weapon so that he candemarche the shipment of supplies before the weapon can be assembled. If the2 LTG James Williams (Ret.), USA, Former Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, quoted inCynthia M. Grabo, Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, ed. Jan Goldman(Washington DC: Joint Military Intelligence College’s Center for Strategic Intelligence Research,2002), iii.3 VADM Lowell E. Jacoby, Director, DIA, as posted on the Director’s Intelink home page, February2003.6
Page 1 and 2: Joint Military Intelligence College
Page 3 and 4: The Joint Military Intelligence Col
Page 5 and 6: CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
Page 7 and 8: appreciate other distinctive elemen
Page 9 and 10: In addition to his promoting the in
Page 11 and 12: ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
Page 13 and 14: “butter now” to build a strong
Page 15: orist groups half-a-world away mean
Page 19 and 20: Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 21 and 22: decades before the conflict when a
Page 23 and 24: or pieces of information which were
Page 25 and 26: probably been given too little atte
Page 27 and 28: warfare the army that could bring t
Page 29 and 30: Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
Page 31 and 32: NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
Page 33 and 34: line proponent is likely to say,
Page 35 and 36: In the Industrial Age we based our
Page 37 and 38: Let me explain by comparing the New
Page 39 and 40: ight now we have a position (potent
Page 41 and 42: The take-home message here is that
Page 43 and 44: degrees and one I took six minutes
Page 45 and 46: MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
Page 47 and 48: Example: I see a large mammal with
Page 49 and 50: In WMD analysis, these distinctions
Page 51 and 52: Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
Page 53 and 54: Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
Page 55 and 56: Information Retrieval is Built on L
Page 57 and 58: to extract all the entities or a me
Page 59 and 60: That means that unless own ship man
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 63: analysis. A bigger database full of
Page 66 and 67:
viduals subordinate their decisionm
Page 68 and 69:
environment. In a world of limited
Page 70 and 71:
account for any deviations from equ
Page 72 and 73:
In summary:■ When the world will
Page 74 and 75:
progress of that plan. If change is
Page 76 and 77:
have been reached. “If they do A,
Page 78 and 79:
Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
Page 80 and 81:
Efforts to date to use information
Page 82 and 83:
Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
Page 84 and 85:
From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
Page 86 and 87:
of enemy forces and that he prepare
Page 88 and 89:
Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
Page 90 and 91:
Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
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systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95:
ing “power” plotted vertically
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Biological systems extract energy a
Page 98 and 99:
NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
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❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
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There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105:
The two kinds of models are complem
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Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
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ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111:
Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
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Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115:
The redundancy of the detailed kind
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This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119:
■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
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Massive Data?” However, the Case
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When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125:
Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
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at an appropriate place in the time
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When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
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problem, warning involves an in-dep
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■ Observe the incoming reporting.
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In the past—through the Industria
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FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
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evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
Page 140 and 141:
suggested guidance and models of Ma
Page 142 and 143:
Using Homology Searching in Intelli
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ways can be identified in this way
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❏ Human intervention needed to ve
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Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
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Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153:
When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155:
To make matters worse, even the col
Page 156 and 157:
VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159:
From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
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The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
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messenger to and from the edges of
Page 164 and 165:
The organization of the IC in this
Page 166 and 167:
Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
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From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
Page 170 and 171:
Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
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Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
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tion, and it followed that they wer
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drawn from a generation that thinks
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mal or cultural population in terms
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■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
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By learning the lessons of Cynthia
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INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
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Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
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OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
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WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
Page 192 and 193:
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