Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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problem, warning involves an in-depth, cumulative compiling andanalysis of these trends and developments rather than an excessiveconcentration on the latest or most current information, which can behighly misleading. 54MDA follows directly from Cynthia Grabo’s assessment on warning intelligence.History matters. Knowing the history of what weapons of mass destructionare being researched, developed, and built provides the baseline for strategicanalysis and is the basis for strategic warning. But unless we can model our ownthought processes in building Multidimensional Analysis (MDA) or strategicwarning, we cannot hope to write a computer algorithm to automate the process.How do we do that? Again, Grabo provides the critical clue.As a research problem, warning involves an in-depth, cumulativecompiling and analysis of these trends and developments... 55MDA or strategic warning is a research problem. First and foremost, everyintelligence analyst is a researcher.As indicated before, the problem of Iraq’s WMD is not different from myeighth-grade daughter’s inventions project, or any research for that matter. Andthe core of all critical research is hypothesis testing. Of course, hypothesis testingis done in response to asking a question. Who? What? When? Where? Why?How? Subsequently, research is built on its own Decision Cycle:■ Hypothesis — Build a possible mechanism for how the world worksand define an experiment to test the hypothesis.■ Experiment — Perform a series of interactions with the world andcollect data.■ Observation — Observe the data.■ Hypothesis — Correlate the data with that predicted by the hypothesis;keep hypotheses that are supported by the data, and discardhypotheses that are inconsistent with the data.■ Repeat above.■ Theory — After enough experiments are performed to give a highdegree of credence to a given hypothesis, it moves up to being a“theory.”54 Grabo, 162.55 Grabo, 162.126
The only difference between the scientific method, the researcher’s DecisionCycle, and the OODA Cycle is the ordering of events.Research[Hypothesis Define Experiment Experiment Observation Hypothesis]or TheoryMilitary[Orientation Decision Action] [Observation Orientation]For the military officer, the most important step is the action taken against theadversary and, therefore, the OODA cycle culminates in that action. For theresearcher, the most important step is the Theory, and, therefore, the HypothesisTesting cycle culminates with a better hypothesis and ultimately a theory.For the military officer, taking the action is paramount. For the researcher,building a plan for future action is paramount.For the military officer, actions are collection-driven. For the researcher,actions are hypothesis-driven.The crucial step in answering the original question is the orientation stepwhere the hypothesis is compared against observed data. The researcher’s majortask is to build a hypothesis that answers the question in a way that is consistentwith all the data. For the military officer, this is not an issue because the decisionmakerhas already determined which hypothesis answers the question and whichplan can implement that hypothesis; current intelligence is comparing new datawith the plan to ensure that it is still on course and/or any contingencies in theplan are addressed.The current intelligence analyst’s Decision Cycle is a classical OODA cyclebecause actionable assessments for implementing current plan are the goal.Therefore, current intelligence is collection-driven.127
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Joint Military Intelligence College
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The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
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orist groups half-a-world away mean
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intelligence and requires exhaustiv
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Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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decades before the conflict when a
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or pieces of information which were
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probably been given too little atte
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warfare the army that could bring t
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Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
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NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
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line proponent is likely to say,
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In the Industrial Age we based our
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Let me explain by comparing the New
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ight now we have a position (potent
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The take-home message here is that
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degrees and one I took six minutes
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MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
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Example: I see a large mammal with
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In WMD analysis, these distinctions
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Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
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Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
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Information Retrieval is Built on L
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to extract all the entities or a me
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That means that unless own ship man
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Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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analysis. A bigger database full of
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viduals subordinate their decisionm
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environment. In a world of limited
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account for any deviations from equ
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In summary:■ When the world will
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progress of that plan. If change is
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have been reached. “If they do A,
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Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
Page 80 and 81: Efforts to date to use information
Page 82 and 83: Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
Page 84 and 85: From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
Page 86 and 87: of enemy forces and that he prepare
Page 88 and 89: Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
Page 90 and 91: Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
Page 92 and 93: systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95: ing “power” plotted vertically
Page 96 and 97: Biological systems extract energy a
Page 98 and 99: NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
Page 100 and 101: ❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
Page 102 and 103: There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105: The two kinds of models are complem
Page 106 and 107: Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109: ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111: Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
Page 112 and 113: Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115: The redundancy of the detailed kind
Page 116 and 117: This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119: ■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
Page 120 and 121: Massive Data?” However, the Case
Page 122 and 123: When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125: Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 126 and 127: at an appropriate place in the time
Page 128 and 129: When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
Page 132 and 133: ■ Observe the incoming reporting.
Page 134 and 135: In the past—through the Industria
Page 136 and 137: FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
Page 138 and 139: evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
Page 140 and 141: suggested guidance and models of Ma
Page 142 and 143: Using Homology Searching in Intelli
Page 144 and 145: ways can be identified in this way
Page 146 and 147: ❏ Human intervention needed to ve
Page 148 and 149: Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
Page 150 and 151: Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153: When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155: To make matters worse, even the col
Page 156 and 157: VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159: From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
Page 160 and 161: The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
Page 162 and 163: messenger to and from the edges of
Page 164 and 165: The organization of the IC in this
Page 166 and 167: Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
Page 168 and 169: From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
Page 170 and 171: Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
Page 172 and 173: Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
Page 174 and 175: tion, and it followed that they wer
Page 176 and 177: drawn from a generation that thinks
Page 178 and 179: mal or cultural population in terms
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■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
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By learning the lessons of Cynthia
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INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
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Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
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OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
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WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
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