Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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viduals subordinate their decisionmaking role to a single leader. This makes thehierarchy much more efficient because the individuals can work cooperativelytoward the same goals based on the decisions of the leader.Networks and hierarchies have inherent advantages over each other, butwhich is best? Just as chemists use ideal compounds—the ideal gas and the perfectcrystal—we can compare a perfect network and perfect hierarchy to understandhow they work. Whenever we cannot imagine a “perfect” network orhierarchy, we can consider the closest real-world examples: a commune isalmost a pure network while Stalin’s USSR or the Saddam Hussein’s Iraqapproached pure hierarchies.Networks versus Hierarchies—Informed Inaction versusUninformed ActionThe network has the advantage over the hierarchy in that the observing andorienting process is distributed over the entire organization—which means that itcan bring all the observational and assessment skills of every individual to bearon any problem. The wide-open lines of communication in the network make foreffectiveness in sensing the world and orienting its place in that environment.However, since organizational operations must be accomplished by consensus,the network is inefficient in decisionmaking or acting. The network is thoughtfuland effective but slow and inefficient. In short, a network is characterized byinformed inaction.The hierarchy has the advantage over the network in that the decisionmaking isconcentrated in a single individual, which means that there will always be unanimityin actions because all individuals are following orders of the leader. Therestricted lines of communication in the hierarchy make for efficiency in operations.However, since all the orienting processes are also concentrated in a singleindividual, the hierarchy is only as smart as its leader. The hierarchy is fast andefficient but superficial and often ineffective. In short, a hierarchy is characterizedby uninformed action.But which is better—a network or a hierarchy? It all depends... For bothorganisms and organizations, the “better” solution is the one that leads to organismalor organizational survival. The alternative is extinction or regime change.The key to any Decision Cycle is the ability to formulate and implement a planof action that will be the best response to the environment on the basis of allavailable observed data. And there will always be three kinds of tradeoffsrequired for any organism or organization: (1) the today or tomorrow tradeoff, (2)the guns or butter tradeoff, and (3) the intelligence or operations tradeoff.60
TIME LINEO O D A.Individual 1O O D AIndividual 4O O D AIndividual 1O O D AIndividual 2O O D AIndividual 3O O D AIndividual 4O O D AOrganizatio nNetworkO O DOrganizationHierarchyAORGANIZATION CHART1 213 4Network2 3 4HierarchyNetworkIndividuals share intelligence andactions but retain individual decisionmakingauthority.HierarchyIndividuals follow leader’sorders for common action usingintelligence.Informed Inactionvs.Uninformed ActionThe present versus future tradeoff comes from the dichotomy between theneed of the organism or organization to extract and store energy from the environmentand the need to reproduce. The more resources put away for anotherday the better the organism or organization can exploit tomorrow’s environment,whatever that may be. However, the more resources that can be used today—toact or to reproduce—the better the organism can most efficiently exploit today’s61
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Joint Military Intelligence College
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The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
Page 15 and 16: orist groups half-a-world away mean
Page 17 and 18: intelligence and requires exhaustiv
Page 19 and 20: Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 21 and 22: decades before the conflict when a
Page 23 and 24: or pieces of information which were
Page 25 and 26: probably been given too little atte
Page 27 and 28: warfare the army that could bring t
Page 29 and 30: Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
Page 31 and 32: NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
Page 33 and 34: line proponent is likely to say,
Page 35 and 36: In the Industrial Age we based our
Page 37 and 38: Let me explain by comparing the New
Page 39 and 40: ight now we have a position (potent
Page 41 and 42: The take-home message here is that
Page 43 and 44: degrees and one I took six minutes
Page 45 and 46: MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
Page 47 and 48: Example: I see a large mammal with
Page 49 and 50: In WMD analysis, these distinctions
Page 51 and 52: Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
Page 53 and 54: Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
Page 55 and 56: Information Retrieval is Built on L
Page 57 and 58: to extract all the entities or a me
Page 59 and 60: That means that unless own ship man
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 63: analysis. A bigger database full of
Page 68 and 69: environment. In a world of limited
Page 70 and 71: account for any deviations from equ
Page 72 and 73: In summary:■ When the world will
Page 74 and 75: progress of that plan. If change is
Page 76 and 77: have been reached. “If they do A,
Page 78 and 79: Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
Page 80 and 81: Efforts to date to use information
Page 82 and 83: Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
Page 84 and 85: From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
Page 86 and 87: of enemy forces and that he prepare
Page 88 and 89: Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
Page 90 and 91: Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
Page 92 and 93: systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95: ing “power” plotted vertically
Page 96 and 97: Biological systems extract energy a
Page 98 and 99: NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
Page 100 and 101: ❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
Page 102 and 103: There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105: The two kinds of models are complem
Page 106 and 107: Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109: ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111: Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
Page 112 and 113: Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115: The redundancy of the detailed kind
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This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
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■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
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Massive Data?” However, the Case
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When the first pass at the known en
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Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
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at an appropriate place in the time
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When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
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problem, warning involves an in-dep
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■ Observe the incoming reporting.
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In the past—through the Industria
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FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
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evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
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suggested guidance and models of Ma
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Using Homology Searching in Intelli
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ways can be identified in this way
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❏ Human intervention needed to ve
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Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
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Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
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When young children play soccer, th
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To make matters worse, even the col
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VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
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From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
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The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
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messenger to and from the edges of
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The organization of the IC in this
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Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
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From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
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Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
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Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
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tion, and it followed that they wer
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drawn from a generation that thinks
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mal or cultural population in terms
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■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
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By learning the lessons of Cynthia
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INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
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Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
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OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
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WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
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