Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102and hypothesis testing 125-126Logistics Cycle 75modeling 17national 153, 161, 179-180Observer 75, 127orientation 15, 38, 180Orienter 75, 127, 158intelligence vs operations 58-59, 64-65, 67-69, 81need to plan two cycles ahead 70, 81-82, 165Operations Cycle 75Organization charts 61Organizations 58-60biological 58-59hierarchies and networks compared 60-62hierarchies 58-59networks 58, 80“Orient the arrows,” 15, 86-95, 154, 164Orientation 15, 30, 43, 70-71, 127, 152-154, 157OSINT 111, 113, 156, 160Paradigm shift 21, 66, 169, 175Pearl Harbor 3, 5, 68Physical world 74Planck, Max 170Printed word 172Reorienting the IC 175Reorienters, First-Generation 175, 179Resource allocation“guns” vs “butter” 1-2, 60, 63-64intelligence vs operations 60, 63-64today vs tomorrow 60, 63-64Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) 17-18, 157-158, 167, 172-173RMA, definition 19OPR187
Revolution in Military Culture (RMC) 19RMC, definition 19RMC, emergence of new 172-173Rue, GYSGT Steven, hypothesis-testing 136Sciencebioinformatics 131, 138biology 18, 175-176chemistry 18physics 18, 170political 175-176Science vs intelligence 17SIGINT 113, 156, 160Spoken word 159Sputnik 1, 68Strategic warning 11, 149-150Strongman and Wiseman 159, 167Submariners, time-motion-analysis (TMA) 52-53systems of systems 123, 151-152Tactical warning 11, 69, 164Terrorism 80-81Terrorism, OSINT collection 114Theory 132, 136-137Thermodynamics, Second Law of 30Timelines 57, 61US Naval Academy 169-170STUWWarning 1, 6, 10Warning analysis 11-13, 83-85Warning, Strategic, Definition 1, 164Warning Tactical, Definition 1, 164Williams, LTG James, USAF, asymmetric warfare & warning intelligence 5-6Wiseman and Strongman 159, 167188
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Joint Military Intelligence College
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The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
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orist groups half-a-world away mean
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intelligence and requires exhaustiv
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Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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decades before the conflict when a
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or pieces of information which were
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probably been given too little atte
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warfare the army that could bring t
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Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
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NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
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line proponent is likely to say,
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In the Industrial Age we based our
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Let me explain by comparing the New
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ight now we have a position (potent
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The take-home message here is that
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degrees and one I took six minutes
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MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
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Example: I see a large mammal with
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In WMD analysis, these distinctions
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Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
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Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
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Information Retrieval is Built on L
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to extract all the entities or a me
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That means that unless own ship man
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Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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analysis. A bigger database full of
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viduals subordinate their decisionm
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environment. In a world of limited
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account for any deviations from equ
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In summary:■ When the world will
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progress of that plan. If change is
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have been reached. “If they do A,
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Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
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Efforts to date to use information
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Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
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From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
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of enemy forces and that he prepare
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Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
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Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
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systems is that they are organized
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ing “power” plotted vertically
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Biological systems extract energy a
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NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
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❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
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There are two basic kinds of method
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The two kinds of models are complem
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Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
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ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
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Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
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Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
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The redundancy of the detailed kind
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This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
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■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
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Massive Data?” However, the Case
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When the first pass at the known en
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Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
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at an appropriate place in the time
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When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
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problem, warning involves an in-dep
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■ Observe the incoming reporting.
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In the past—through the Industria
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FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
Page 138 and 139: evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
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Page 142 and 143: Using Homology Searching in Intelli
Page 144 and 145: ways can be identified in this way
Page 146 and 147: ❏ Human intervention needed to ve
Page 148 and 149: Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
Page 150 and 151: Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153: When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155: To make matters worse, even the col
Page 156 and 157: VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159: From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
Page 160 and 161: The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
Page 162 and 163: messenger to and from the edges of
Page 164 and 165: The organization of the IC in this
Page 166 and 167: Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
Page 168 and 169: From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
Page 170 and 171: Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
Page 172 and 173: Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
Page 174 and 175: tion, and it followed that they wer
Page 176 and 177: drawn from a generation that thinks
Page 178 and 179: mal or cultural population in terms
Page 180 and 181: ■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
Page 182 and 183: By learning the lessons of Cynthia
Page 184 and 185: INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
Page 186 and 187: Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
Page 190 and 191: WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
Page 192 and 193: Other Books from the Joint Military
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