Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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■ Ceremonial occasions can be very valuable in assessing organizationalrelationships. For example, if the Premier of Karjakistan visited theMicrobiology Institute to present Dr. Borisovich a medal for “valuableservice” to the nation, one would very likely see that reported in alocal journal listing all the Party dignitaries and important scientists inattendance, often with a picture of all concerned lined up in front ofthe building. Occasions to watch include: visits from important leaders;ground breaking or openings of new facilities; funerals; exhibitionsor trade shows; and party or holiday ceremonies. Attendance by ascientist at a Party or military ceremony can be very revealing.OSINT-directed HUMINT collection has the potential to be very valuable asthe IC becomes more integrated. For example, analysis of biomedical and biotechnologyopen literature can:■ Identify individuals suspect in biotechnology proliferation for furtherHUMINT targeting.■ Identify potential HUMINT sources in the U.S. who were students orcollaborators of suspect scientists who could provide important backgroundon those scientist’s expertise, travels, and other associates.■ Provide unclassified evidence of proliferation links for use indemarches. Sometimes scientific publications or news reports willindicate suspect links between nations, such as Russian scientistsworking in Iran, which is consistent with classified intelligence data;the unclassified source could then be used to call the attention of theforeign government to the potential proliferation issue without havingto divulge classified sources.■ Provide quick screening of visa applications for suspect background inBW. “Medlining” a biologist can be done in less than a half hour inmost cases. Therefore, a quick check on open-source data can rapidlyindicate whether a foreign scientist is suspect and requires additionalchecking before granting a visa.HUMINT- and OSINT-driven IMINT and Signals Intelligence (SIGINT)collection is likely the most valuable byproduct of the MDA approach. Much ofthe context required for building the multidimensional model ends up on the “cuttingroom floor” and never is included in finished intelligence. However, the richcontext can provide very valuable clues for all the INTs. For example, IMINT islimited for WMD collection—especially BW—by the dual-use nature of WMDfacilities. BW facilities are most often indistinguishable from other academic orbiomedical facilities, which are in turn virtually identical to schools and warehouses.Therefore, a sketch drawn by a defector on how he walked or took the113
Open-source Intelligence on Terrorist CBRNE ProgramsSurprisingly OSINT can provide valuable background and context forunderstanding terrorist CBRNE programs. Valuable open sources on the Global Waron Terrorism (GWOT) include:News stories from reporters in-country. With the high interest level on theGWOT, many newspapers, wire services, and TV networks have sent reporters closeto the action who have found unique data. Example – A Wall Street Journal reporterrecovered a computer in Kabul safehouse likely used by Al Qaeda’s Dr. AymanZawahiri which contained documents on building a chemical and biological warfareprogram.Local press reports. With worldwide interest in the GWOT, press coverage inregions in which the U.S. has few collection resources can help fill in the blanks.Example – in trials in Malaysia and Indonesia, including the recent one for thesuspect Bali bombers, the suspects have testified about links between JemaahIslamiah (JI) and Al Qaeda, named the leaders involved, and identified personnel whotrained in Al Qaeda camps in Afghanistan. Such news reports are posted on theLexis/Nexis database and often can be found online on the newspapers’ websites.Official Government statements or leaked official reports. When persons aredetained for questioning in the GWOT, local officials usually will release informationon those detentions and sometimes other officials will talk off-the-record to localreporters. Again, these will appear in local press. Example – Pakistani governmentofficials released statements on captured Al Qaeda members and on questioning ofsuspect Al Qaeda-linked nuclear scientists and physicians; Malaysian and Indonesianpolice released reports on suspect JI terrorists.train from his house to visit or work at a suspect facility or a propaganda newsphoto of dignitaries lined up in front of a suspect facility could allow an imageryanalyst to find that facility. Similarly, as mentioned above, identification thatGeneral “Joe” A heads the Missile Corps in City S and Mr. “Bob” B works for theAtomic Energy Commission in City A through HUMINT and/or OSINT could bevery valuable to a SIGINT analyst who intercepts conversations between “Joe”and “Bob” about “special shipments” where the phones at each end are in the correctcities for the two offices.Strategic Analysis of a WMD Program—How do we assemble all thedata into a multi-dimensional model?The kinds and amount of data that can potentially be used in a multidimensionalanalysis of a WMD program is enormous. At first glance it appears thatenormous computing power plus new kinds of “data-mining” tools are necessarybecause of the NIMD challenge, “How do we extract Novel Intelligence from114
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Joint Military Intelligence College
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The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
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orist groups half-a-world away mean
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intelligence and requires exhaustiv
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Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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decades before the conflict when a
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or pieces of information which were
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probably been given too little atte
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warfare the army that could bring t
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Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
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NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
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line proponent is likely to say,
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In the Industrial Age we based our
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Let me explain by comparing the New
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ight now we have a position (potent
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The take-home message here is that
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degrees and one I took six minutes
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MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
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Example: I see a large mammal with
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In WMD analysis, these distinctions
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Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
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Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
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Information Retrieval is Built on L
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to extract all the entities or a me
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That means that unless own ship man
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Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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analysis. A bigger database full of
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viduals subordinate their decisionm
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Page 72 and 73: In summary:■ When the world will
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Page 76 and 77: have been reached. “If they do A,
Page 78 and 79: Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
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Page 82 and 83: Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
Page 84 and 85: From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
Page 86 and 87: of enemy forces and that he prepare
Page 88 and 89: Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
Page 90 and 91: Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
Page 92 and 93: systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95: ing “power” plotted vertically
Page 96 and 97: Biological systems extract energy a
Page 98 and 99: NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
Page 100 and 101: ❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
Page 102 and 103: There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105: The two kinds of models are complem
Page 106 and 107: Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109: ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111: Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
Page 112 and 113: Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115: The redundancy of the detailed kind
Page 116 and 117: This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 120 and 121: Massive Data?” However, the Case
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Page 124 and 125: Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 126 and 127: at an appropriate place in the time
Page 128 and 129: When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
Page 130 and 131: problem, warning involves an in-dep
Page 132 and 133: ■ Observe the incoming reporting.
Page 134 and 135: In the past—through the Industria
Page 136 and 137: FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
Page 138 and 139: evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
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Page 142 and 143: Using Homology Searching in Intelli
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Page 146 and 147: ❏ Human intervention needed to ve
Page 148 and 149: Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
Page 150 and 151: Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153: When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155: To make matters worse, even the col
Page 156 and 157: VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159: From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
Page 160 and 161: The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
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Page 166 and 167: Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
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From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
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Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
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Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
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tion, and it followed that they wer
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drawn from a generation that thinks
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mal or cultural population in terms
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■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
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By learning the lessons of Cynthia
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INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
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Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
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OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
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WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
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