Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do we find out the adversary’s strategic plan? Step 1 in building WarningAnalysis for the Information Age is to build a methodology to model the targetthat accounts for his strategic planning and his need for a two decision-cycleplanning process to build WMD or CBRNE.Modeling WMD Networks—The ProblemIf the final objective of warning analysis is the understanding of what theadversary is going to do, then the knowledge or recognition that he hasdecided to do something is the ultimate achievement... What should be ofhighest priority in the analytic process—the attempt to decide what the adversaryhas decided—is often shunted aside in favor of mere factual reporting ofwhat is going on, which is obviously much easier and less controversial. 40[Multilayer Chart drawn by Michael Maskaleris]Human networks are distinct from electronic ones. They are not theInternet. They are political and emotional connections among peoplewho must trust each other in order to function, like Colombian drugcartels and Basque separatists and the Irish Republican Army. Not tomention high-seas pirates, smugglers of illegal immigrants, and roguebrokers of weapons of mass destruction. 41WMD programs are networks built on multiple kinds of interactions: personaland organizational relationships, technical processes and flows, transportationand financial networks, and electronic connectivity networks. These interactionsare often plotted as networks on a chart. Multilayer network diagrams very rapidlybecome unwieldy and incomprehensible because they contain information ofmultiple types which is plotted with no quantitative relationships among thenodes and distance or sequencing information in the links.Visualizing Networks—the Dimensionality and Complexity ProblemsVisualization: The Problem of High Dimensionality■ Humans can visualize very effectively in 2 dimensions; can identifypatterns with difficulty in at most 5 or 6 dimensions40 Grabo, 103.41Joel Garreau, “Disconnect the Dots,” Washington Post, 17 Sep 2001, C1.85