Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

account for any deviations from equilibrium, such as an incrementally growingarms race, the model will not change nor must the plan. Since tomorrow’s planwill then look much like today’s, the plan should be made to optimize the choiceof guns or butter for today—neglecting tomorrow because tomorrow will notchange enough to change the plan. Once the plan has been made, the hierarchywill implement it best.Intelligence or operations? Once the plan is made in a static world using aNewtonian model, intelligence is only needed to check the plan to look for minordeviations that need to be corrected. Therefore, under such conditions, the bulk ofan organism’s or organization’s resources should be dedicated to operations. In astatic world, current intelligence is most critical to provide constant but rathereasily assessed feedback to ensure that things are going according to the plan.In summary:■ When the world is not changing and a plan has already been made, it isbest to maximize resources used for operations to implement that plan.A hierarchy is best to do so.■ The organization in a static world only needs enough intelligenceresources to monitor that the plan is being implemented properly.■ Current intelligence provides data to assess that the current plan is satisfactoryfor current operations.■ In a static world, current intelligence is all that is needed.In times of change— when tomorrow’s world will be incrementally differentfrom today’s—a command network, an organization that balances a networkand a hierarchy, is best. And in times of incremental change tactical warningbecomes most important.The second possibility is that of a two player model, quantum and multi-state.Here there are only two players in the game but the other player will make decisionsduring the course of the game. Since Newtonian models cannot account fordecisionmaking, these are conditions that transcend Newtonian models even ifthey are two-player zero-sum-games. In a world where the adversary is makingdecisions, as in changing its plans, but those decisions are predictable, the organizationcan include contingency plans within its overall plan. For example, theorganization has assessed that the adversary will begin hostilities and has structureditself to defeat the adversary when the attack does come. Thus a plan wasconstructed that accounts for operations prior to hostile action and operationsduring hostile action. A hybrid organization, which we will call a command network,provides the best solution to the three tradeoffs under these conditions.64