Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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ways can be identified in this way so that every new MDA of a differentWMD or CBRNE program will become easier as a common WMDMDA model is built for each type of WMD and a range of differentstrategies within that model emerges by analysis of multiple programs.Biologists now exploit the power of homology searching by using a few simplebioinformatics tools to deduce the function and mechanisms of newly discoveredgenes by comparison with evidence in DNA, protein, genetic, and otherdatabases—without having to perform any additional laboratory or field experiments!Once MDA has been used to profile a few WMD programs, using similarhomology searching methods can recall more evidence from the current databaseswithout having to perform new field collection. If analysts concentrate onusing systematic MDA-assisted hypothesis testing to build better theories andassessments against a worldwide baseline of WMD programs, not only will ourunderstanding of individual programs greatly improve, but an understanding ofWMD proliferation mechanisms will inevitably emerge.Computers Don’t Think, People Think—New Thinking Toolsfor the Information AgeA system is defined as a set of different elements so connected orrelated as to perform a unique function not performable by the elementsalone. 61 Annette KrygielSystems, like their biological counterparts, are defined by what they DO, notwhat they ARE. The “database problem” is not a problem with databases at all.Rather, the problem is to build a new system of people and information technology(IT) systems by which the analysts can, in fact, find Novel Intelligence inMassive Data and can, in fact, provide strategic warning. The new system will becomposed of people and computers whereby the computers and the databasesthey contain will be tools for the analysts to use to become smarter.The problem with the “database” problem is in first realizing that there are atleast four different kinds of databases. Each corresponds to the datasets thatresearchers already use in hypothesis testing (data repository, data collection, evidencefile, and assessment outline) and each is distinct in its format and usage.And it is very important to keep clear the distinction between databases and thedatasets they contain. Lessons learned from MDA projects on WMD programs61 Krygiel, 32.140
indicate that the same data “nugget” can reside in each dataset contained in eachdatabase, BUT there is different analytical worth and value-added dependent onwhere the “nugget” is found.Getting the Proper Tools to Do the Job:What New Computing Tools Do We Need?Although the individual kinds of databases and database tools have beenaround for many years, a major impediment to strategic analysis and MDA is thatcurrent IT systems are not set up for hypothesis testing mainly because when oneuses the word “system,” by current paradigms, one immediately thinks “IT system”rather than “Human/IT system,” which does not account for the multiplehuman-computer and computer-human interactions required to complete the analyticaltask of building a strategic assessment.What Data Mining is Not:■ A particular software product or mathematical program■ Just for statisticians■ Turn-keyDATASETS TASKS TOOLSAssessmentPresentationWebsite[IT|Human] InterfaceCustomerWebsite BuildingHYPERTEXTEvidence FileEntity Datasets3x5 Card DeckData CollectionAnalystShoeboxBook/Record PileData RepositoryGlobal InputDatasetsLIbraryBuild WebsiteDatamine Entity SetReformat TrafficAnalyze ShoeboxSearch ShoeboxScan ShoeboxSearch Global DataScan TrafficCollector Input DatasetTable DataminingME TATEXTText to Table ReformattingConvert TEXT toMETATEXTText Document AnalysisTEXT DocumentsDocument RetrievalTEXT documentsTools are colormatchedwith tasks.141
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Joint Military Intelligence College
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The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
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orist groups half-a-world away mean
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intelligence and requires exhaustiv
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Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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decades before the conflict when a
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or pieces of information which were
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probably been given too little atte
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warfare the army that could bring t
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Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
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NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
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line proponent is likely to say,
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In the Industrial Age we based our
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Let me explain by comparing the New
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ight now we have a position (potent
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The take-home message here is that
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degrees and one I took six minutes
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MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
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Example: I see a large mammal with
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In WMD analysis, these distinctions
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Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
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Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
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Information Retrieval is Built on L
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to extract all the entities or a me
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That means that unless own ship man
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Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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analysis. A bigger database full of
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viduals subordinate their decisionm
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environment. In a world of limited
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account for any deviations from equ
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In summary:■ When the world will
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progress of that plan. If change is
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have been reached. “If they do A,
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Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
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Efforts to date to use information
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Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
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From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
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of enemy forces and that he prepare
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Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
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Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
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systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95: ing “power” plotted vertically
Page 96 and 97: Biological systems extract energy a
Page 98 and 99: NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
Page 100 and 101: ❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
Page 102 and 103: There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105: The two kinds of models are complem
Page 106 and 107: Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109: ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111: Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
Page 112 and 113: Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115: The redundancy of the detailed kind
Page 116 and 117: This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119: ■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
Page 120 and 121: Massive Data?” However, the Case
Page 122 and 123: When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125: Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 126 and 127: at an appropriate place in the time
Page 128 and 129: When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
Page 130 and 131: problem, warning involves an in-dep
Page 132 and 133: ■ Observe the incoming reporting.
Page 134 and 135: In the past—through the Industria
Page 136 and 137: FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
Page 138 and 139: evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
Page 140 and 141: suggested guidance and models of Ma
Page 142 and 143: Using Homology Searching in Intelli
Page 146 and 147: ❏ Human intervention needed to ve
Page 148 and 149: Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
Page 150 and 151: Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153: When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155: To make matters worse, even the col
Page 156 and 157: VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159: From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
Page 160 and 161: The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
Page 162 and 163: messenger to and from the edges of
Page 164 and 165: The organization of the IC in this
Page 166 and 167: Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
Page 168 and 169: From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
Page 170 and 171: Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
Page 172 and 173: Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
Page 174 and 175: tion, and it followed that they wer
Page 176 and 177: drawn from a generation that thinks
Page 178 and 179: mal or cultural population in terms
Page 180 and 181: ■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
Page 182 and 183: By learning the lessons of Cynthia
Page 184 and 185: INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
Page 186 and 187: Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
Page 188 and 189: OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
Page 190 and 191: WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
Page 192 and 193: Other Books from the Joint Military
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