Commuter Rail Extension Alternatives Analysis - Transportation ...

CALTRAIN EXTENSION TO MONTEREY COUNTYALTERNATIVES ANALYSISTable 4-1Socio-Economic Data with Buffer Information around StationsStations/BuffersCastrovillePajaroSalinasHouseholdPopulation2000 2010 2020 2025PercentShareHouseholdPopulationPercentShareHouseholdPopulationPercentShareHouseholdPopulation0.5-mile buffer 7,682 8,003 8,196 8,5102.5-mile buffer 4,920 5,424 5,850 6,1554.5-mile buffer 3,917 8,516 12,986 15,125PercentShareSubtotal 16,519 7% 21,943 8% 27,032 9% 29,790 9%0.5-mile buffer 5,296 5,485 5,587 5,6432.5-mile buffer 39,407 43,405 47,081 48,9884.5-mile buffer 33,065 36,529 39,733 41,430Subtotal 77,768 33% 85,419 31% 92,401 30% 96,061 29%0.5-mile buffer 13,256 14,742 16,001 16,1192.5-mile buffer 99,493 114,641 127,929 145,7954.5-mile buffer 25,970 35,050 43,566 42,969Subtotal 138,719 60% 164,433 60% 187,496 61% 204,883 62%Total 233,006 100% 271,795 100% 306,929 100% 330,734 100%Source: Parsons 645188-033COMMUTER DATATable 4-3 indicates where Monterey County residents work and how many residents from othercounties work in Monterey County. According to the U.S. Census, the number of persons workingwithin Monterey County declined from 162,079 to 159,157 between 1990 and 2000. The number ofMonterey County residents living and working within Monterey County declined by a larger margin,from 151,520 in 1990 to 146,444 in 2000, a drop of 5,076 intra-county commuters. The number ofMonterey County residents commuting to jobs outside the county grew from 12,750 in 1990 to 18,073in 2000, an increase of 41.7 percent. Most of this growth was directed along the U.S. 101 corridor toSanta Clara, San Benito, and other San Francisco Bay Area counties.Table 4-4 reports forecasts of county-to-county commuting, prepared by Parsons in 2003, AMBAG in2001 and 2005, and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) in 1988, 2000, and 2004.Based on this compilation of forecasts, estimates of county commuting have been prepared byParsons for potential use by this assessment. Of significance, the AMBAG estimate of Year 2000Monterey to Santa Clara County commuters, used in its 4-County Model, is low by a factor of morethan two based on U.S. Census data. Insofar as the AMBAG 3+1 County Model, AMBAG’s estimateof home based work trips to Santa Clara County indicates no increase between Year 2000 and 2030.This lack of growth occurs due to the incompatibility of the population and employment data used byAMBAG for the three Monterey Bay counties versus the employment data used for Santa ClaraCounty.parsons CHAPTER 4: TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTS 98