Commuter Rail Extension Alternatives Analysis - Transportation ...

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CALTRAIN EXTENSION TO MONTEREY COUNTYALTERNATIVES ANALYSISTable 4-11Caltrain Extension Ridership Estimates by Station (VTA Method)Egress/Access Transit Commuters Pajaro Castroville Salinas2000: Percent Share 100% 33% 7% 60%Santa Clara—Central 291 96 20 175Santa Clara—North 632 209 44 379San Mateo 72 24 5 43San Francisco 33 11 2 20Total 1,028 340 72 617Source: Parsons645188AA-046The ACE 2000-onboard passenger survey indicated that there were 395 respondents to the surveywho rode ACE trains to Santa Clara County from San Joaquin County (a survey response rate of 84percent). The data was expanded to the actual number of passengers riding ACE (470) as shown inTable 4-12.The survey also contained information on the destination of riders traveling from San Joaquin toSanta Clara County. Destination data is shown in Table 4-13, reported by zip code. The ACE ridersurvey results were expanded to the actual number of riders traveling to Santa Clara County fromSan Joaquin County.Table 4-12Altamont Commuter Express Ridership from San Joaquin County to Santa Clara County—2000 SurveyOrigin StationDestination StationSan Joaquin County Great America San Jose Total Responses Expanded RidersStockton 43 17 60 71Lathrop/Manteca 124 32 156 186Tracy 135 44 179 213Total 302 93 395 470Source: ACE 2000 On Board Passenger Survey645188AA-047Table 4-13Year 2000 Commuters to Caltrain MarketsZipCodeLocationTotalJobs Tracy Stockton Lathrop Total ExpandedPercentShare94089 Lockheed 73,265 10 10 30 6%95050 Santa Clara East 101,205 12 8 20 59 13%95054 Great America 169,480 23 4 14 41 122 26%95134 McCarthy Ranch 147,427 21 9 18 48 143 30%94043 Shoreline 102,739 4 4 12 3%95051 Santa Clara West 110,487 5 5 15 3%94086 Oakmead 50,000 13 13 39 8%95052 Alameda95110 De la Cruz94538 Alviso 7,574 8 8 24 5%95113 Downtown San Jose 33,978 9 9 27 6%95014 Los AltosTotal 806,155 66 22 70 158 470 100%Source: ACE 2000 On Board Passenger Survey 645188-048parsons CHAPTER 4: TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTS 111
CALTRAIN EXTENSION TO MONTEREY COUNTYALTERNATIVES ANALYSISThe total number of jobs within a 2-mile buffer of the ACE stations (Great America, Santa Clara, andSan Jose Diridon) was previously shown in Figure 4-2. Based on the distribution of rider destinationsreported by the Year 2000 survey of ACE riders, a second graphic was prepared illustrating the areaeffectively serviced by ACE. Figure 4-5 illustrates this expanded buffer of trip destinations for the ACEstations served in Santa Clara County. While the Santa Clara station is additionally served, no tripdestination data was reported for that station by the Year 2000 rider survey. A summary of the totalnumber of jobs surrounding the destination stations is shown in Table 4-14.From the rider destination data presented in Table 4-13, it was observed that 56 percent of the ridersare destined to job locations within approximately two miles of the ACE station. For calculating a triprate based on transit service market, the total number of jobs accessible within a 2-mile buffer wasassumed to be 100 percent. Beyond the 2-mile ring, but within the expanded buffer, 30 percent of thetotal jobs in the outer buffer were assumed to be accessible. The total number of jobs serviced by theACE corridor was therefore estimated to be 242,221 as shown in Table 4-14. The ACE transit servicetrip rate was simply the ratio of the total number of riders to the service market (470/242221) and isequal to 0.0019403.The total number of jobs for the Year 2000 along the Caltrain corridor was a 2-mile buffer of a stationis 572,737 within Santa Clara County. Applying the transit service trip rated developed from the ACEinformation to this Caltrain service market (572,737× 0.0019403) results in an estimate of 1,111transit trips to Santa Clara County from Monterey County. Trips to San Mateo and San Franciscocounties would be in addition.Summary of Ridership ForecastsBased on the three sketch planning methods of estimating ridership, it appears that approximately1,028 patrons could be expected to board Caltrain at stations located within Monterey County, givenYear 2000 commuter patterns. An equal number of riders would board at San Francisco Bay Areastations and ride south to Monterey County. (This estimate now appears to be appropriate for the2010 planning horizon. 5 ) This number of patrons would be expected to double by 2020 to 2030,based on commuter forecasts developed by Parsons and MTC. Table 4-15 provides estimates ofboarding locations within Monterey County and destination stations in the San Francisco Bay Area.Daily ridership would double the estimates of one-way, northbound, AM boardings.Table 4-14Year 2000 Commuters from San Joaquin County Served by Altamont Commuter Express Stationsin Santa Clara CountyDestinationStationJobs in 2-MileBufferJobs in OuterBufferEffective Serviceto Outer BufferDiscounted Jobsin Outer BufferTotal JobsServiced by ACEGreat America 63,905 282,059 30% 84,618 148,523San Jose 75,682 60,054 30% 18,016 93,698Total 139,587 342,113 102,634 242,221Source: Parsons645188AA-0505 Chapter 2 of this Alternatives Analysis discusses commuting trends observed between 2000 and 2005 insofar as gateway traffic volumesand regional rail ridership. Based on this information, it appears that 2006 travel demand conditions are similar to Year 2000 traveldemand conditions with respect to long distance commutes from outlying counties to Silicon Valley employers. Thus, references to Year2000 demand and ridership projections are assumed to be now realized in 2010. Year 2020 ridership projections are assumed to be nowrealized in 2030.parsons CHAPTER 4: TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTS 112
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