Commuter Rail Extension Alternatives Analysis - Transportation ...

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CALTRAIN EXTENSION TO MONTEREY COUNTYALTERNATIVES ANALYSISBased on these rates, the number of transit accidents and costs resulting from implementation of theCaltrain Extension or Express Bus alternatives is presented in Table 8-19.Table 8-19Transit Accident Disbenefits of Caltrain Extension and Express Bus Alternatives2010 2030Parameter Caltrain Express Bus Caltrain Express BusRevenue vehicle miles 193,290 867,970 386,580 1,664,915Fatalities 0.046 0.043 0.093 0.083Injuries 0.182 10.589 0.363 20.068All accidents 0.211 12.785 0.421 24.52Fatality costs $137,388 $ 128,428 $277,763 $ 247,896Injury costs $ 13,157 $ 765,479 $ 26,241 $1,450,716Property damage costs $ 14,406 $ 148,306 $ 28,744 $ 284,432Total accident costs $164,951 $1,042,213 $332,748 $1,983,044Internal (user) costs $150,545 $ 893,907 $304,004 $1,698,612External costs $ 14,406 $ 148,306 $ 28,744 $ 284,432Source: ParsonsEnvironmental CostsEnvironmental costs are computed based on methodologies reported in the Cal-B/C TechnicalSupplement to User’s Guide. 13 As surmised by the Cal-B/C research investigation,“Transportation investments have consequences for the natural environment. Environmentaleffects belong to the category of externalities—costs that fall on people other than those whogenerate them.“Transportation investments affect the environment because of the construction process,impacts of the facility itself, and resulting changes in travel behavior. … Travel changes, suchas increased travel speeds, increased vehicle trip-making, or diversion of trips, haveimplications for air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and noise.“The adverse health effects of vehicle emissions are probably the most significantenvironmental costs of travel. Enough is known about these effects to incorporate them readilyinto benefit-cost analyses. Vehicle emissions generally fall into two categories:• Air Pollutant Emissions – Motor vehicles emit pollutants, such as carbon monoxide(CO), oxides of nitrogen (NO X ), volatile organic compounds (VOC), particulate matter(PM), and oxides of sulfur (SO X ). These emissions, in turn, can react in the atmosphereto form other pollutants. Ozone is formed through the combination of NOX and VOC insunlight. NO X , VOC, and SO X can react in the atmosphere to form secondaryparticulates. Air pollutants can cause damage to human health, building materials, andagriculture and vegetation, as well as limit visibility.13Booz • Allen & Hamilton, Inc., September 1999; Volume 2: System Metrics Group, Inc., June 2004.parsons CHAPTER 8: EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES 189
CALTRAIN EXTENSION TO MONTEREY COUNTYALTERNATIVES ANALYSIS• Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Fuel consumption releases gases that trap heat withinthe Earth’s atmosphere, of which carbon dioxide is the most important. Increasingconcentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere may be causing changes in theEarth’s climate that could potentially impose substantial costs on society in terms offlooding, crop loss, and increased incidence of disease.“The physical volumes of air-pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions resulting from travel arereadily quantified, as the processes that result in these emissions are well understood. …As aresult, many benefit-cost models include environmental costs resulting from air-pollutantemissions. Information on the effects of greenhouse gases is currently insufficient to support ameaningful range of cost estimates.“Other environmental effects are less significant, less understood, or difficult to quantify andvalue. As a result, these effects tend to be excluded from benefit-cost models. Ignored effectsinclude:• Noise…• Hazardous Materials Incidents…• Upstream Fuel Effects….“Transportation investments may result in increases or decreases in vehicle emissions. …As aresult, transportation projects can result in environmental benefits or disbenefits.”Air quality impacts resulting from station construction, Caltrain operation, commuter access tostations, and emissions credit from commuters using train service rather than auto trip making aredocumented in Caltrain Extension to Monterey County Passenger Rail Stations, Volume 1 DraftEnvironmental Impact Report (EIR). This analysis addressed emissions and emission creditsoccurring with the Monterey Bay Unified Air Pollution Control District’s area of interest, i.e., the NorthCentral Coast Air Basin—per the environmental scoping effort. The Caltrain Extension and ExpressBus alternatives impact a larger area, however, extending northward to the San Francisco Bay AirBasin. For this reason, environmental costs are determined generically below, using the emissionrates cited in the Caltrain Extension Draft EIR for passenger trains and commuter vehicles. The urbanbus emission rates are from the California Air Resource Board model, EMFAC2002 version 2.2,computed for the North Central Coast Air Basin.The discussion that follows pertains to operational emissions as opposed to construction emissions.Operational emissions consist of emissions directly from new operations of trains or express busesand indirect emissions from passenger vehicles traveling to the train stations/platforms. Theemissions decrease resulting from commuters taking the train or express bus rather than driving towork is also calculated as an emissions credit. The above emissions are calculated below for the2010 and 2030 planning horizons.Emissions from Train OperationThe estimated one-way trip distance traveled by train between Salinas and Gilroy is 37.9 miles. It isassumed that by 2010 there would be two round trip trains a day in operation, and by 2030 therewould be four round trip trains a day in operation. Therefore, the total miles traveled by train eachyear would be 38,658 miles by 2010 and 77,316 miles by 2030.The emissions from train operations can be calculated by multiplying the emission factors listed inEPA documents (USEPA, 1992 and USEPA, 1997) to the inverse of mileage of the train as derivedfrom the most recent information provided on the website of Bureau of Transportation Statisticsparsons CHAPTER 8: EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES 190
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