Commuter Rail Extension Alternatives Analysis - Transportation ...

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CALTRAIN EXTENSION TO MONTEREY COUNTYALTERNATIVES ANALYSIScosts and the net present values of the overall system improvements assume a discount rate ofseven percent. Benefits are computed for a 20-year period from 2011 to 2030.For the Caltrain Extension Alternative, these findings indicate the following:1. Total benefits ($203,491,430) exceed total costs ($102,098,450) by $101,392,980 (FY 2007dollars). This benefit/cost (B/C) ratio is 1.99.2. The net present value of these benefits, assuming a discount rate of seven percent is$77,412,425. The net present value of implementation costs is $87,840,176. This B/C ratio is0.88.3. The payback 15 period, at a discount rate of seven percent, is 23.5 years.Table 8-32Life-Cycle Benefits and Costs of Caltrain Extension AlternativeYear Total Benefits Total Costs Net Present Value Net Present Value Benefits Net Present Value Costs200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030————4,845,6555,406,5945,967,5326,528,4717,089,4097,650,3488,211,2868,772,2259,333,1639,894,10210,455,04011,015,97811,576,91612,137,85412,698,79213,259,73013,820,66814,381,60614,942,54415,503,4873,995,24318,273,70428,102,20851,747,296————————————————————1.0000.9350.8730.8160.7630.7130.6660.6230.5820.5440.5080.4750.4440.4150.3880.3620.3390.3170.2960.2770.2580.2420.2260.2113,697,2353,854,9023,974,3764,067,2374,126,0364,161,7894,171,3334,166,8074,143,9244,106,0524,056,5563,987,7843,924,5753,847,7003,758,8423,672,9453,565,7323,480,3493,377,0153,271,2363,995,24317,085,91324,533,22742,225,793—————————203,491,430 102,098,450 77,412,425 87,840,176———————————Source: ParsonsFor the Express Bus Alternative, the benefit-cost findings are as follows:4. Total benefits ($21,315,517) are less than total costs ($116,455,555) by 95,140,038 (FY 2007dollars). This B/C ratio is 0.18.15The payback period is the amount of time measured in years to recover the life-cycle investments (capital and net public operating costs).parsons CHAPTER 8: EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES 197
CALTRAIN EXTENSION TO MONTEREY COUNTYALTERNATIVES ANALYSIS5. The net present value of these benefits, assuming a payback period of 20 years and adiscount rate of seven percent is $6,638,766. The net present value of implementation costs is$84,246,711. This B/C ratio is 0.08.6. At a discount rate of seven percent, user benefits and external costs do not pay back thepublic investment in the Express Bus Alternative due to the high net public cost of express busoperations and the need for periodic replacement of the bus fleet.Table 8-34 compares these life-cycle benefits and costs for the Caltrain Extension and Express Busalternatives.Table 8-33Life-Cycle Benefits and Costs of Express Bus AlternativeYear Total Benefits Total Costs Net Present Value Net Present Value Benefits Net Present Value Costs200720082009———3,200,90311,765,43419,472,4131.0000.9350.873———3,200,90311,000,68016,999,416201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030—(232,363)(95,717)40,929177,575314,222450,868587,514724,160860,80747,016,805———5,000,000———10,000,000—0.8160.7630.7130.6660.6230.5820.5440.5080.4750.444—(177,293)(68,246)27,259110,629182,877245,272298,457343,976382,19838,365,712———3,115,000———4,750,000—997,4531,134,0991,270,7451,407,3911,544,0381,680,6841,817,3301,953,9762,090,6222,227,2692,363,915——15,000,000———5,000,000————0.4150.3880.3620.3390.3170.2960.2770.2580.2420.2260.211413,943440,030460,010477,106489,460497,482503,400504,126505,931503,363498,786——5,430,000———1,385,000————Source: Parsons21,315,517 116,455,555 6,638,766 84,246,711Table 8-34Summary of Benefit Cost Analysis ResultsCaltrain ExtensionExpress BusLife-cycle benefits/total costs ratio $203 M/$102 M = 1.99 $21 M/$116 M = 0.18Net present value of benefits/costs at 7% discount rate $77 M/$88 M = 0.88 $7 M/$84 M = 0.08Payback period at 7% discount rate 23.5 years Not paid back** The payback period is the amount of time measured in years to recover the life-cycle investments (capital and net public operatingcosts). The table shows that public investment in the Express Bus Alternative will never be paid back.parsons CHAPTER 8: EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES 198
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