Commuter Rail Extension Alternatives Analysis - Transportation ...

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CALTRAIN EXTENSION TO MONTEREY COUNTYALTERNATIVES ANALYSISTable 8-11Fuel Consumption Rates (gallons/mile)Speed Auto Truck5 0.182 0.31010 0.123 0.18115 0.089 0.13520 0.068 0.11825 0.054 0.12030 0.044 0.13335 0.037 0.15640 0.034 0.18545 0.033 0.22350 0.033 0.26455 0.034 0.31660 0.037 0.37465 0.043 0.43970 0.052 0.511Source: Cal-B/C, California Air Resources BoardTable 8-12Vehicle Operating Cost SavingsParameter 2010 2030Annual VMT reduction (miles) 31,562,557 60,542,349Annual fuel savings (gallons) 1,502,378 2,881,816Annual motorist cost of fuel savings $4,499,622 $ 8,631,039Annual non-fuel motorist cost savings (excluding mileage-based depreciation) $1,925,316 $ 3,693,083Total vehicle operating cost savings $6,424,938 $12,324,122Revenue transfers ($893,915) ($1,714,681)Crash BenefitsTo compute benefits associated with the Caltrain Extension and Express Bus alternatives versus theNo Build Alternative, the number of vehicle miles traveled over the highway system was computed foreach alternative.Rates of crash occurrences resulting in fatalities, personal injuries, and property damage only wereobtained from Caltrans for year 2004. Statewide rates were used in the calculation of benefits. Theserates are listed in Table 8-13.Table 8-13California Crash Rates on State Highways (2004)*Functional Classification PDO Crash Rate Injury Crash Rate Fatal Crash RateAll 100.90 61.96 1.13Source: California Highway Patrol, California Department of Transportation*Crash rates per 100 million vehicle miles.parsons CHAPTER 8: EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES 185
CALTRAIN EXTENSION TO MONTEREY COUNTYALTERNATIVES ANALYSISThe values of loss associated with accidents were obtained from the National Safety Council and a1991 Urban Institute/Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) study. Periodically, the National SafetyCouncil estimates the average cost of fatal and non-fatal injuries due to motor vehicle crashes. Theseestimates are made using comprehensive or willingness to pay method. These costs includeeconomic costs such as wage and productivity losses, medical expenses, motor vehicle damage, anda value reflecting lost quality of life.In 2001, the National Safety Council estimated the following average comprehensive costs on a perinjured person basis:Death $3,340,000Incapacitating injury $ 165,000Non-incapacitating evident injury $ 42,500Possible injury $ 20,200These per injured person costs were converted to per vehicle crash costs using formulas published inFHWA Technical Advisory T 7570 (June 30, 1988). The resulting costs per vehicle crash werecomputed to be the following, expressed in Year 2006 dollars:Fatal accident $4,314,665Injury accident $ 97,240Property damage only (PDO) accident costs were computed using a cost value obtained from theCal-B/C model. This model uses a value for PDO accidents estimated by the 1991 Urban Institute/FHWA study. The Urban Institute/FHWA calculated its estimate taking two primary factors intoaccount:1. Unreported accidents—Automobile accident surveys indicate that roughly 40 to 50 percent ofall PDO accidents are not reported.2. Combined property value—PDO accidents frequently involve more than one vehicle.The value of an average non-fatal, non-injury accident was calculated primarily using records of vehicleand property damage payments made by insurance companies. Some additional cost categories,such as travel delay and lost wages, were included to make minor contributions to the final estimate.After adjusting the Urban Institute/FHWA estimate to Year 2006 using the gross domestic productdeflator, a value of $8,067 per reported PDO accident was derived.Taking inflation into account, these estimates of accident costs compare favorably with values used infour computerized benefit-cost models, as reported in Table 8-14.One of the benefit-cost models, STEAM 2.0, calculates separate internal and external accident costs.Internal accident costs are defined as costs inflicted upon and perceived by transportation facilityusers. External costs are defined as costs inflicted on users, but not perceived by users. Table 8-15identifies the breakdown of these accident cost assumptions.Overall, the Caltrain Extension Alternative provides $7 million of highway accident avoidance costsavings annually, assuming current year dollars and year 2030 ridership levels.Details of these computations are provided in Table 8-16.parsons CHAPTER 8: EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES 186
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