Commuter Rail Extension Alternatives Analysis - Transportation ...

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CALTRAIN EXTENSION TO MONTEREY COUNTYALTERNATIVES ANALYSISTable 8-14Accident Cost EstimatesAccident TypeCSI*($ 1993)StratBENCOST**($ 1996)STEAM†($ 1997)Raildec‡($ 1997)TAMC($ 2006)Fatality $3,325,095 $3,521,359 $2,726,350 $3,613,137 $4,314,665Injury $ 78,903 $ 83,848 $ 59,718 $ 86,033 $ 97,240PDO $ 5,651 $ 5,806 $ 3,322 $ 5,957 $ 8,067* Cambridge Systematics, Inc. (CSI), Approaches for Developing Nationwide Estimates of Congestion Delay, Accidents, Emissions, andNoise Impacts: Interim Report, 1995.** NCHRP Project 2-18(3), Development of an Innovative Highway User Cost Estimation Procedure. Midrange of costs reported.† FHWA, Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model, 1997. Total of internal and external costs.‡ Companion to StratBENCOST which estimates the reduction in accident costs as the change in highway accidents between the baseand alternative (rail) case. StratBENCOST values inflated by 2.6 percent for all accident types. Parsons, based on California Life-Cycle Benefit/Cost Analysis Model, Technical Supplement to User’s Guide.Table 8-15Accident Cost Assumptions for TAMC ($ 2006)Accident Type Internal Cost External Cost Total CostFatality $3,667,465 $647,200 $4,314,665Injury $ 82,654 $ 14,586 $ 97,240PDO $ 6,857 $ 1,210 $ 8,067Source: ParsonsTable 8-16Crash Avoidance Benefits of Caltrain Extension and Express Bus AlternativesParameter 2010 2030Annual VMT equivalents 31,562,557 60,542,039Fatality crash equivalents 0.357 0.684Injury crash equivalents 19.556 37.512PDO crash equivalents 31.847 61.087Fatality crash costs $1,540,335 $2,951,231Injury crash costs 1,901,625 3,647,667PDO crash costs 256,910 492,789Total accident costs $3,698,870 $7,091,687Internal costs 3,144,040 6,027,934External costs 554,830 1,063,753parsons CHAPTER 8: EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES 187
CALTRAIN EXTENSION TO MONTEREY COUNTYALTERNATIVES ANALYSISTransit AccidentsReductions in automobile accidents resulting from increased transit use will be offset to a small extentby increases in transit accidents. Transit accidents and costs can be computed as a function ofvehicle miles operated. Table 8-17 lists accident rates based on U.S. Department of Transportationnational averages, as reported for the Cal-B/C analysis model. 12Table 8-17Default Fatality, Injury and Accident Rates per Million Vehicle-MilesIncidents Passenger Train Light Rail BusFatalities 0.24 0.23 0.05Injuries 0.94 12.8 12.2All accidents 1.09 11.13 14.73Source: U.S. DOT, average of 1994, 1995 and 1996 data.These accident rates are by event rather than accident type. Therefore, the fatality accident raterepresents the number of fatalities per million vehicle-miles rather than the number of fatalaccidents per million vehicle-miles. For rail modes, train-miles must be converted to vehicle-milesusing the average number of vehicles per train.Total transit accident costs are calculated by multiplying the accident rate by the cost for eachincident and summing across incident types. Property damage costs are multiplied by the totalaccident rate, since all transit accidents result in some level of property damage. Fatality and injurycosts are viewed as user disbenefits, inflicted upon and perceived by transportation system users(internal costs). Property damage to transit vehicles and non-transit users are considered to beexternal accident costs.Table 8-18 shows the costs that Cal-B/C uses for each type of transit incident based on 1995National Safety Council estimates. The cost of property damage for transit vehicles are based onestimates provided by the Federal Railroad Administration, the California Public Utilities Commission,and the Journal of Safety Research. All costs have been updated to Year 2006 dollars using thegross domestic product (GDP) deflator.Table 8-18Fatality, Injury and Property Damage Costs for Transit AccidentsIncidents Passenger Train Light Rail BusFatality $2,986,700 $2,986,700 $2,986,700Injury $ 72,290 $ 72,290 $ 72,280Property damage $ 68,275* $ 11,850** $ 11,600*Sources:* National Safety Council, Federal Railroad Administration, and Journal of Safety Research,Winter 1994, Volume 25, No. 4, page 193.** California Public Utilities Commission, 1997, Annual Report of Railroad Accidents Occurring inCalifornia, Appendix III-C—Light Rail, Rapid Rail and Cable Car Accidents, 1997.12California Life-Cycle Benefit/Cost Analysis Model, Booz-Allen & Hamilton, Inc., September 1999; and System Metrics Group, Inc., June2004.parsons CHAPTER 8: EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES 188
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