Commuter Rail Extension Alternatives Analysis - Transportation ...

CALTRAIN EXTENSION TO MONTEREY COUNTYALTERNATIVES ANALYSISdollars, while costs are expressed as (negative) dollars. Table 3 demonstrates that the benefits of theCaltrain Extension Alternative exceed the benefits of the Express Bus alternative in both 2010 and2030.Table 3Summary of Caltrain Extension and Express Bus Alternative BenefitsUser Benefits2010 2030Benefit Type Caltrain Express Bus Caltrain Express BusIn-vehicle travel time $ 252,032 $ 252,032 $ 6,985,931 $ 4,160,454Fuel costs 4,499,622 4,499,622 8,631,039 8,631,039Non-fuel operating cost savings 1,925,316 1,925,316 3,693,083 3,693,083Transit user fees (3,310,612) (3,310,612) (6,320,790) (6,320,790)Internal accident costs or savings—Highway 3,144,040 3,144,040 6,027,934 6,027,934Transit (150,545) (893,907) (304,004) (1,698,612)Revenue Transfers (Fuel Taxes) (893,915) (893,915) (1,714,681) (1,714,681)Reduction in External CostsEmissions 14,361 (105,368) (136,415) (381,210)Highway accidents 554,830 554,830 1,063,753 1,063,753Transit accidents (14,406) (148,306) (28,744) (284,432)Net Public Operating Costs (1,175,068) (5,256,095) (2,393,619) (10,812,623)Total $4,845,655 ($232,363) $15,503,487 $2,363,915The evaluation of the Caltrain Extension and Express Bus alternatives assumed equal ridership forboth the commuter rail and express bus modes. For this reason, most of the user benefits identifiedabove are equal between the Caltrain and Express Bus options. By the year 2030, in-vehicle traveltime for the Express Bus Alternative will be longer due to increased roadway congestion; however, forthe most part benefits are the same or similar between the two modal options. The significantdifference is “Net Public Operating Costs” which is the difference between total operations and maintenanceexpense and fare revenues (transit user fees) paid to ride the service. Operation of a largebus fleet with limited seating capacity between Monterey County and San Francisco Peninsulastations is far more expensive than the incremental cost of extending Caltrain service 37 miles fromGilroy to Salinas.The Caltrain Extension and Express Bus alternatives are assumed to be implemented by 2010, withthe initiation of service occurring in 2011. An analysis of life-cycle benefits and costs indicates thatthe Caltrain Extension Alternative will have a higher benefit-cost ratio than the Express Bus Alternativeover a 20-year, 2011 to 2030 payback period, as indicated in Table 4. Higher operating costsand the need to more frequently replace express bus vehicles result in less favorable performance forthe Express Bus Alternative compared to the Caltrain Extension Alternative. The payback period isthe amount of time measured in years to recover the life cycle investments (capital and net publicoperating costs). The table shows that public investment in the Express Bus Alternative will never bepaid back.parsons EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES-7