Saticoy & Wells Community Plan & Development ... - City Of Ventura

Saticoy & Wells Community Plan and Code EIRSection 5.0 Growth Effects and Other CEQA SectionsIt should be noted that one of the limitations to a quantitative analysis is that emission models,such as URBEMIS, evaluate aggregate emissions and do not demonstrate, with respect to a globalimpact, what proportion of these emissions are “new” emissions, specifically attributable to theproposed project in question. For most projects, the main contribution of GHG emissions is frommotor vehicles and the total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), but the quantity of these emissionsappropriately characterized as “new” is uncertain. Traffic associated with a project may berelocated trips from other locales, and consequently, may result in either higher or lower net VMT.In this instance, it is likely that some of the proposed Project-related GHG emissions, associatedwith traffic and energy demand, would be truly “new” emissions; but, it is also likely that some ofthe emissions represent diversion of emissions from other locations. Thus, although GHGemissions are associated with the Project, it is not possible to discern how much diversion isoccurring or what fraction of those emissions represents global increases. In the absence ofinformation regarding the different types of trips, the VMT generated by URBEMIS is used as aconservative estimate.Estimate of GHG Emissions. Growth estimates for the Project include 1,833 residentialunits and 270,625 square feet of commercial retail space. This analysis uses a conservativeestimate of GHG emissions that assumes that all such development would occursimultaneously. It is important to note that development projects would likely occurthroughout the 2025 planning horizon in separate development projects.Operational Indirect and Stationary Direct Emissions. Development forecast for the ProjectArea would consume an estimated 17.4 million kilowatt-hours [kWh] of electricity per year (seeTable 5-1). The generation of electricity through combustion of fossil fuels typically yieldscarbon dioxide, and to a smaller extent nitrous oxide and methane. As discussed above, annualelectricity emission can be calculated using the California Climate Action Registry GeneralReporting Protocol, which has developed emission factors, based on the mix of fossil-fueledgeneration plants, hydroelectric power generation, nuclear power generation, and alternativeenergy sources associated with the regional grid.Table 5-1Estimated Electricity ConsumptionType of Usesf/UnitsElectricity Demand Factor1Annual ElectricityDemand (kWH/year)Commercial 270,625 sf 16,750 kWH/1000 sf/year 4,532,969Residential 1,833 units 7,000 kWH/unit/year 12,831,000Project Total 17,363,969sf = square feet kWH = kilowatt hour1Source:: CAPCOA, CEQA and Climate Change January 2008.5-13City of Ventura