THE CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS - IFEAT

The downturn in the global economy makes things worse. As an overall consequence, the GT price ismore volatile than at anytime in history. The ceiling price of GT price in US dollars is more thanseven times higher compared with that of a decade ago, while the Chinese currency has appreciated 30%against the US dollar. (Diag. 7).GT PerspectiveMonthly Prices of GT Pinus Massonnia 2001-Oct.2012Diag. 7 Chinese GT trends-Pinus Masonniana 2001-Oct.2012Source: www.rosin-china.comSource: With the “demographic dividend” coming to an end, labour costs continue going up, so gum tappingbecomes a questionable model for the future of GR/GT in China. Worries emerge over thesustainability of the GR/GT industry in China. People have started questioning whether the GR/GTindustry route in North American history will be duplicated in China. And, if so, how soon it willhappen? Mr.Wimberly also raised the same question in his conclusion. I’d like to share my views asfollows:1. Chinese economic development is very unbalanced: the inland provinces will still be able togenerate a competitive labour force in the next 10 years. As GR/GT production is movingfrom coastal to inland provinces, China still has a good chance to be able to supply globaldemand.2. The price of GT will continue to go up if we look at the long run trend. Live-pine tapping willnot disappear, as happened in North America, because China does not have enough CST as areplacement in the foreseeable future. Therefore, expensive Chinese GT will lose its marketto other sources, for example, petrochemicals at a certain point or GT from other countries.Only turpentine dependency products consume turpentine. Demand for GT will shrink if theprice is too expensive. However compared to the North American GT price in 1946 when GT96