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Assessment and Future Directions of Nonlinear Model Predictive ...

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280 J.M. Maciejowski, A. Lecchini Visintini, <strong>and</strong> J. Lygeros2. Conventional NMPC does not guarantee convergence to the global optimum.MCMC guarantees convergence to a near-optimal solution.3. Conventional NMPC interprets constraints as hard bounds. MCMC gives apre-defined probability <strong>of</strong> not violating constraints.4. Conventional NMPC uses hill-climbing optimization. MCMC uses stochasticoptimization, which requires much more computational effort <strong>and</strong> time.5. Satisfactory behaviour <strong>of</strong> conventional NMPC over time can be achievedusing known techniques. The behaviour <strong>of</strong> MCMC when used repeatedly ina receding-horizon context has not yet been investigated.The application <strong>of</strong> the MCMC approach to air traffic control problems hasbeen described. Some speculations on other possible applications have also beengiven. It is expected that many such applications will be found outside traditionalengineering areas, where nonlinear uncertain models are available, <strong>and</strong> enoughtime is available to complete the required computations ‘on-line’.Research is currently under way to make the MCMC algorithm more suitablefor MPC applications. But some applications can be tackled now, withoutwaiting for the results <strong>of</strong> further research.References[1] K.J. Arrow. Social Choice <strong>and</strong> Individual Values. Yale University Press, 2ndedition, 1963.[2] M.B. Beck, editor. Environmental Foresight <strong>and</strong> <strong>Model</strong>s: a Manifesto. Elsevier,2002.[3] J. Bentham. Principles <strong>of</strong> Morals <strong>and</strong> Legislation. Oxford University Press, 1823(originally published 1789).[4] D. Bernoulli. Specimen theoriae novae de mensura sortis, Commentarii AcademiaeScientiarum Imperialis Petropolitanae (5, 175-192, 1738). Econometrica, 22:23–36, 1954. Translated by L. Sommer.[5] H. Blom <strong>and</strong> J. Lygeros. Stochastic Hybrid Systems: Theory <strong>and</strong> Safety CriticalApplications. Springer-Verlag, 2006.[6] M.H.A. Davis <strong>and</strong> M. Zervos. A problem <strong>of</strong> singular stochastic control withdiscretionary stopping. Annals <strong>of</strong> Applied Probability, 4:226–240, 1994.[7] A. Doucet, N. de Freitas, <strong>and</strong> N. Gordon, editors. Sequential Monte Carlo Methodsin Practice. Statistics for Engineering <strong>and</strong> Information Science. Springer, NewYork, 2001.[8] A. Doucet, S.J. Godsill, <strong>and</strong> C. Robert. Marginal maximum a posteriori estimationusing Markov chain Monte Carlo. Statistics <strong>and</strong> Computing, 12:77–84, 2002.[9] W. Glover <strong>and</strong> J. Lygeros. A stochastic hybrid model for air traffic control simulation.In R. Alur <strong>and</strong> G. Pappas, editors, Hybrid Systems: Computation <strong>and</strong>Control, number 2993 in LNCS, pages 372–386. Springr-Verlag, 2004.[10] HYBRIDGE: Distributed Control <strong>and</strong> Stochastic Analysis <strong>of</strong> HybridSystems Supporting Safety Critical Real-Time Systems Design.http://www.nlr.nl/public/hosted-sites/hybridge/, 2005. EuropeanCommission FP5 project, contract IST-2001-32460.[11] R.C. Jeffrey. The Logic <strong>of</strong> Decision. University <strong>of</strong> Chicago Press, 2nd edition,1983.

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