Jackson2013-Status and Trendsof Caribbean Coral Reefs

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Florida Keys (Dustan 2003, DuPont et al. 2008) and the US Virgin Islands (Edmunds 2002, Rogers and Miller 2006, Miller et al. 2009), but commonly exceeds 30% on reefs in Curacao and Bonaire (Bak et al. 2005, Sandin et al. 2008, Steneck et al. 2011, Vermeij 2012), the Flower Gardens Banks (Aronson et al. 2005; Hickerson et al. 2008), and Bermuda (Murdoch et al. 2008, Smith et al. 2013). The causes of these regional differences are poorly understood despite their obvious significance for conservation and management. Caribbean reefs with the highest coral cover tend to be characterized by little land-based pollution; some degree of fisheries regulations and enforcement; lower frequencies of hurricanes, coral bleaching, and disease; and moderate economic prosperity. However, these apparent trends have not been rigorously investigated. There is also a fundamental methodological problem in the common failure to distinguish between the potential anthropogenic drivers of reef degradation such as human overpopulation, overfishing, coastal pollution, introductions of alien species, and ocean warming and acidification, versus their symptoms such as losses of corals and increases in macroalgae, coral bleaching, and disease (Hughes et al. 2010). This confusion is compounded by scientific provinciality. Most scientists study reefs in a geographically limited area and then project their results to the entire Caribbean. This tendency for over generalization is further compounded by an overall lack of comparative data to address multiple factors in a unified analysis (Hughes et al. 2010). New insights in science commonly emerge from examining exceptions to general patterns rather than the norms (Knowlton and Jackson 2008). Thus the major goal of this report is to document the variable condition of Caribbean reefs as a means to better understanding of the factors driving Caribbean reef decline and what actions might be adopted to prevent their demise. To this end, Part I of the report is divided into five main sections: 1. Data, methods, and analysis; 2. Description of quantitative changes in the status and trends of major components of Caribbean coral reef ecosystems (corals, macroalgae, sea urchins, and fish) since 1970 throughout the tropical western Atlantic; 3. Analysis of the different potential drivers of change to attempt to determine their comparative impact on reefs to the present day and likely impacts in the future; 4. Synthesis of results; and 5. Recommendations for management. FIGURE 1. Estimates of annual percent coral cover for the entire wider Caribbean region (re-plotted from Gardner et al. 2003). STATUS AND TRENDS OF CARIBBEAN CORAL REEFS: 1969-2012 19
A B C FIGURE 2. Decline in the composition and size of coral reef trophy fish in the Florida Keys since the 1950s (modified from McClenachan 2008). 20 STATUS AND TRENDS OF CARIBBEAN CORAL REEFS: 1969-2012
Page 1 and 2: Status and Trends of Caribbean Cora
Page 3 and 4: Dedication: This book is dedicated
Page 5 and 6: Phase shifts ......................
Page 7 and 8: Introduction This is the 9th status
Page 9 and 10: Acknowledgments, Co-sponsors, and S
Page 11 and 12: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Jeremy Jackson
Page 13 and 14: STRATEGY AND SCOPE OF THE PRESENT R
Page 15 and 16: The greatest overall changes in cor
Page 17 and 18: heating events are surprisingly fla
Page 19: PART I: OVERVIEW AND SYNTHESIS FOR
Page 23 and 24: Sampling units are defined as follo
Page 25 and 26: Table 2. List of coral reef locatio
Page 27 and 28: Country or Territory Location # of
Page 29 and 30: Compilation of the great majority o
Page 31 and 32: Two other major survey programs beg
Page 33 and 34: mean of 14.3 % (+2.0, -1.8). This l
Page 35 and 36: Changes in coral cover were similar
Page 37 and 38: FIGURE 13. Large-scale shifts from
Page 39 and 40: TABLE 5. Changes in coral and macro
Page 41 and 42: The disparate reef histories in Fig
Page 43 and 44: 2b. ECOLOGICAL EXTINCTION OF FORMER
Page 45 and 46: Decline of Diadema antillarum Diade
Page 47 and 48: Table 7. Numbers of visitors and re
Page 49 and 50: Caribbean, where the mass mortality
Page 51 and 52: FIGURE 26. Percent coral cover in r
Page 53 and 54: or avoidance behavior by larvae and
Page 55 and 56: of disease and coral death. These a
Page 57 and 58: contrast, reefs on the Belize Centr
Page 59 and 60: TABLE 9. Average secchi disk depths
Page 61 and 62: Label Country Location DHW 1998 DHW
Page 63 and 64: 2010 are surprisingly flat (Fig. 33
Page 65 and 66: Pacific lionfish Pterois volitans t
Page 67 and 68: Bruno et al. 2009). However, our re
Page 69 and 70: is, for example, for degree heating
Page 71 and 72:
1. Ban all trap fishing, spearfishi
Page 73 and 74:
Chollett I, Mumby PJ, Müller-Karge
Page 75 and 76:
CH, Steneck RS, Tegner MJ, Warner R
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Rasher DB, Stout EP, Engel S, Kuban
Page 79 and 80:
Appendices Appendix I Field Field O
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80 STATUS AND TRENDS OF CARIBBEAN C
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Location Reference Data Contributor
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Davis GE (1982) A century of natura
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Roos PJ (1964) The distribution of
Page 111 and 112:
Steneck RS (1994) Is herbivore loss
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PART II: REPORTS FOR INDIVIDUAL COU
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COUNTRIES, STATES, AND TERRITORIES
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Map Code Contributor Time Period Ye
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7 Nagelkerkan, Bimini 2006 1 X Ivan
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Cheung WWL, Sadovy de Mitcheson Y (
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BARBADOS Coauthors: Caroline Bissad
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2003-present: Sporadic outbreaks of
Page 128 and 129:
BELIZE Coauthors: Nadia Bood, John
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Fig. 4.3 Average percent cover of m
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24 Dustan P, King A, Treml E, Allin
Page 134 and 135:
Fig. 5.2 Average percent cover of l
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Fricke H, Meischner D (1985) Depth
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Map Code Contributor Location Time
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10 Kramer PA, Bischof B.G. (2003) A
Page 142 and 143:
Fig. 7.2 Average percent cover of l
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CAYMAN ISLANDS Coauthors: Timothy A
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Fig. 8.3 Diadema density and biomas
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COLOMBIA Coauthors: Alan Friedlande
Page 150 and 151:
1980s-1990: Macrolagal and coral di
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Published Data Sources 1 Coral A, C
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CUBA Coauthors: Pedro M. Alcolado,
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2005: Hurricane Dennis (Category 4)
Page 160 and 161:
CURAÇAO Coauthors: Rolf Bak, Dolfi
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Fig. 12.3 Average density of Diadem
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18 Bruckner AW, Bruckner RJ (2003)
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Fig. 14.2 Average percent cover of
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Geraldes FX, Vega M, Ramírez H, Ro
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General Literature Borger JL, Stein
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Timeline 1878: Black water event ki
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25 Forcucci D (1994) Population den
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Published Data Sources 1 Bright TJ,
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Page 184 and 185:
Chevaillier P (1990) Méthodes d’
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GUATEMALA Coauthors: Ana Giró, Mel
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Gutiérrez L (2007) Informe de avan
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Page 194 and 195:
JAMAICA Coauthors: Karl Aiken, Robe
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Munro JL, Williams DM (1985) Assess
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Timeline 11,000 CE: Human remains o
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Rodríguez-Martínez RE, Banaszak A
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April 2006: Multibeam mapping of is
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Map Contributor Location Time Perio
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6 Guzmán HM, Guevara CA (2001) Cor
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from disease and bleaching. Disease
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Timeline: 1987: Saba Marine Environ
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Lloyd G (2007) Review of the Policy
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TURKS & CAICOS ISLANDS Coauthors: B
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US VIRGIN ISLANDS Coauthors: Richar
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Beets J, Friedlander AM (1999) Eval
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39 Hay ME (1984) Patterns of fish a
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Bastidas C, Cróquer A, Zubillaga A
Page 244:
Rodríguez-Ramírez A, Bastidas C,
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Jackson2013-Status and Trendsof Caribbean Coral Reefs

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