Jackson2013-Status and Trendsof Caribbean Coral Reefs

CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................6
Acknowledgments, Co-sponsors, and Supporters of GCRMN .....8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................10
Introduction .............................................................10
Strategy and Scope of the Present Report ....................................12
Patterns of Change from 1970 to 2012 .......................................12
Drivers of Change ........................................................14
Too many people .....................................................14
Overfishing ..........................................................14
Coastal pollution ......................................................15
Ocean warming ..........................................................15
Invasive species ......................................................16
Concluding remarks ...................................................16
Implications for Management ...............................................17
PART I: OVERVIEW AND SYNTHESIS
FOR THE WIDER CARIBBEAN REGION ......................................18
1. Database, Methodology, and Analysis .....................................21
1a. Scope of the Data .................................................21
1b. Analysis .........................................................30
2. Overall Changes in Biological Abundance ..................................31
2a. Patterns of Change for Corals and Macroalgae .........................31
Long-term changes in corals and macroalgae ...............................33
Geographic Variation in Reef Degradation ..................................34
Ordination of coral and macroalgal community composition: ...................40
2b. Ecological Extinction of Formerly Dominant Species .....................42
Decline of Acropora palmata and A. cervicornis .............................42
Decline of Diadema antillarum ...........................................44
Parrotfish abundance and biomass ......................................44
3. Drivers of Coral Reef Degradation .......................................44
3a. Human Population Density ..........................................45
3b. Fishing ..........................................................47
Diadema abundance before 1984 as a proxy for historical fishing pressure ........48
Contrasting fates of reefs since 1984 in relation to historical fishing pressure .......49
The role of parrotfish today .............................................50
Indirect effects of fishing due to increased macroalgal abundance ...............51
Reduction in coral recruitment .......................................51
Increases in coral disease ...........................................52
Indirect effects of fishing in relation to the effects of hurricanes ..................54
3c. Coastal Pollution ..................................................56
3d. Ocean Warming ..................................................61
3e. Invasive Species ..................................................63
4. Synthesis ............................................................65
4a. Patterns of Change ................................................65
Timing and rates of reef degradation ......................................65
STATUS AND TRENDS OF CARIBBEAN CORAL REEFS: 1969-2012
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