Wind Energy

30
Uncertainty of Wind Energy Estimation
T. Weidinger, Á. Kiss, A.Z. Gyöngyösi, K. Krassován and B. Papp
30.1 Introduction
With the development of low cut-in wind speed turbines for continental
climatological conditions, wind power has become an economical source of
energy in Hungary. The first high power wind turbine was implemented at
the end of 2000 (Inota, Balaton Highlands: 250 kW). Currently nine wind turbines
are working at a total power of about 7 MW. By the end of the decade
3.6% of the total domestic electric energy production (about 1,600 GW h) is
planned to be covered by renewable energy.
Wind-energy research in Hungary has been carried out for more than
half a century [1]. Wind maps for the different periods have been prepared
[2–4], detailed statistical analysis of the wind data has been done [5] and
the Hungarian pages for the European Wind Atlas have been prepared [6, 7].
Wind energy maps have been calculated for different levels based on the WAsP
model [8] and numerical model results [9].
The purpose of this paper is (1) to analyze the inter-annual variability of
wind speed and (2) to demonstrate the uncertainty of the power law formula
widely used in the estimation of wind profile.
30.2 Wind Climate of Hungary
The average wind speed in Hungary is between 2 and 4 m s −1 . The maximum
occurs in spring, the minimum in late summer or early fall. Several wind
maps of Hungary have similar structure, but in some cases large deviations
(0.2–0.4 m s −1 ) are present in the annual means between maps for different
periods or maps based on various interpolation formulae. This feature is
demonstrated on two different wind maps for the period from 1997 to 2003
(Fig. 30.1).