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to comment on the expected average floods over a 20 year period based on his observations
of the marks on the homestead wall:
I haven‟t been out there [to Oriners] for years but I‟d say they probably missed out [on a
flood at the homestead] last wet season [2009-10]. I‟d say there would be a likelihood, a
chance that wet season before they would have got some sort of flood there, because
everyone else in this country did. But no, it‟s not every year. Pretty well the same as, like
Koolatah, probably over a 20 year period they‟d probably get 8 or 10 years where there is
floodwater. Depth varies too I suppose, I know a lot of years we used to go down there and
clean the place up after the wet, but we never had anyone living down there [during the
time Oriners was managed from Dixie Station]. And you know, a lot of times it only went
through the house that deep [1 or 2 foot] and left a water stain on the wall. The deepest
one that I can remember was about 4 foot.
Colin Hughes
This kind of comment about a „statistical average‟ is less commonly made by Indigenous
cattlemen whose learning involved less formal schooling, but the knowledge of potential
variations can at times be greater, as it can encompass more frequent direct observations of
the country and over a longer time period. Members of the Yam family have lived at Oriners
over the wet season a number of times, and therefore have observed the floods themselves
as well as the flood marks. Paddy Yam also commented that he had witnessed another
extreme, saying he had once seen the sandy bottom of Jewfish Lagoon, after it nearly went
dry at the end of a long period of low rainfall. This is not a common or frequent observation
made about one of the main permanent waterholes on the station. Understanding variability
means understanding the general average pattern, the ways in which that pattern varies in
recurring ways, and identifying events or instances that lie well outside of what one might
expect as part of that variability. All of these kinds of knowledge are evident in the comments
above.
2.1.3 „This month is different‟: abnormal changes
Alongside the expected variability and general averages noted above, there were also
observations of changes in the weather which were more than a single unusual instance.
These were now noted in sufficient numbers that they represented a new kind of pattern – a
permanent change to what was normal. There was a clear recognition by a number of
Indigenous people that the weather they now experienced was different from the weather
they remembered from the past:
The seasons have changed. Years ago you could tell the first storms were coming. There
would be an early storm in December to make everything nice for Christmas. Now the
shower rains come earlier and heavier. There are more cyclones predicted for this country.
It used to be you would see the electrical storms before the wet season came. Now the
rains come from anywhere, rather than from the west first.
Alan Creek
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But now you can notice changes in the weather now, this month is different. It should have
been a wet month now, but it‟s not. It should have been raining here, it should have been
raining all around Koolatah, Dunbar, but we are not getting that much rain. It‟s not like what
it was in the early days in our time, when we were kids, growing up. We had rain around
this month of the year [late October] It should be pouring rain, I think. Right across
Koolatah, Dunbar, all up here, right down that way and up this way.
Ivan Jimmy
Working Knowledge at Oriners Station, Cape York
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