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period 1970 - 1980. Some 320000 shacks in informal settlements
in the region need to be replaced with serviced sites or upgraded.
Approximately 300 000 new dwelling units are likewise required in
the Durban Functional Region in the next 10 years*. Overall.
NatallKwaZulu constituting 8% of the land area of South Africa. is
home to 21 % of the total South African population (Cooper et ill.
1993).
(v) According to Wilkins and Hofmeyr (1994. quoted in Hindson and
McCarthy. 1994)** the estimated distribution of the black
population in NatallKwaZulu in 1992 was as follows: formal
settlements in the Durban-Pietermaritzburg Metropolitan Axis
(24.7%); formal settlements in or adjacent to small and medium
towns (3.8%); informal settlements in the Durban-Pietermaritzburg
Metropolitan Axis (16.7%); informal settlements in or adjacent to
other towns (5.1 %). and transitional urbanizing settlements in rural
areas (4.3%). The total urban settlement component was 54.6%
with the remainder of the black population resident in rural areas.
Problems of definition are always apparent in such estimates.
Hindson and McCarthy observed that for densely inhabited
transitional settlements in rural areas. it is not clear where the "rural"
landscape ends and a dense "rural settlement" begins.
* Such information may be incorrect. Surveys undertaken in 1995/96 in the Durban Metropolitan Area.
by the Information Branch of the Urban Strategy Department (Durban Corporation), imply that
previous population data for the Metropolitan Area have been overestimates and that there are
approximately 1 200 000 residents fewer than estimated. (Note that the Durban Metropolitan Area
covering 1 300 km Z is somewhat smaller than the Durban Functional Region). Less people per
dwelling and a trend towards smaller nuclear families (termed decompression as opposed to
compressionl. was evident from the survey data. A smaller population and a reduced population
growth rate (especially in the peri-urban areas and in the informal settlements), has obvious
implications for infrastructure delivery and health services. Some of the survey data are available in
a Geographic Information System (GIS\ database. May \1993 - above) has also questioned the
accuracy of regional population statistics, as well as estimates of the entire South African population.
* * See Hindson. D. and McCarthy. J., 1994. Chapter 1. Defining and gauging the problem, In: Hindson.
D. and McCarthy, J. (eds). Here to Stay: Informal Settlements in KwaZulu-Natal. Indicator Press.
Durban, p. 1 - 28., as well as Graaff, J.F. de V., 1987. The present state of urbanization in the South
African homelands: rethinking the concepts and predicting the future, Development Southern Africa,
VOl4(1), p. 46 - 66.• plus Todes, A.• 1994. Urbanization and urban management in KwaZulu Natal,
Development Southern Africa, VOL 11 (4), p. 541- 555. See in addition: Geyer, H.S. and Du Plessis.
D.J., 1994. Existence level differences and spatial industrial restructuring in South Africa: RDP
imperatives. Development Southern Africa, VOL 11(4), p. 599 - 616., and Dewar, D., 1994.
Reconstructing the South African countryside: the small towns. Development Southern Africa.
VOl 11(3). p. 351 - 362. A useful overview ofurbanization is the following: Gelderblom. D. and Kok,
P., 1994. Urbanization: South Africa's Challenge, VOL 1: Dvnamics, HSRC Publishers, Pretoria,
318 p., as well as Kok, P. and Gelderblom, D., 1994. Urbanization: South Africa's Challenoe, VOL 2:
Planning, HSRC Publishers, Pretoria, 334 p.