CG malls europe - Commerz Real

GDP Growth Rate Aggregated in % p.a.
in %
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit, May 2010
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit, May 2010
Preliminary figures are showing that during the first three months of 2010 the GDP
growth rate was stronger than in Q4 and we are expecting a rate of 0.5% (qoq). The
recovery is still below trend and not without downside risk. Concerns are how authorities
will manage to withdraw their extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy, the social
and fiscal situation in the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) and how the
private sector in countries like Ireland and Spain will write off debt.
With a view to the global recession, the uncertainty at the beginning of 2009, and the
growing unemployment rates in all member states, it is not surprising that private
consumption was negative in 2009 for most of the CG malls europe target countries.
In recent years, the average growth rate for private consumption was 2%, but consumers
have significantly cut down on their spending since the onset of the crisis, and
for the first time since the late 1970s private consumption was negative (-1.7%). As a
consequence, retail turnover between Q2 2008 and Q3 2009 was negative in most of the
countries covered.
Retail Turnover in % p.m.
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
Jan 06
Apr 06
Jul 06
Oct 06
EU 27 East and Central Europe Nordics Southern Europe
Jan 07
Apr 07
Source:
Source:
EuroStat.
EuroStat,
*3-months
*3 Months
rolling
roling
average;
average;
excluding
excluding
Automotive,
Automotive,
SA. May
SA.
2010
May 2010
Jul 07
Oct 07
EU 27 Germany France Spain
Jan 08
Apr 08
Jul 08
Oct 08
Jan 09
Apr 09
Jul 09
Oct 09
Jan 10
Manager‘s Report on the Fund
11