CG malls europe - Commerz Real

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For 2010, the Economist Intelligence Unit is forecasting a positive consumption growth
in the majority of the European countries, whereas the outlook for the Baltics, the Czech
Republic, Hungary, Spain and the UK remains negative.
Private Consumption Growth in % p.a.
5
0
-5
-10
FI SE DK PL AT FR SK PT IT BE RO DE CZ NL GB ES HU IE
Source: The Source: Economist The Economist Intelligence Intelligence Unit, May Unit, 2010May
2010
All segments of the European Sentiment Indicator improved over the last year. This is
to some extent explained by the fact that the fear of unemployment eased during the
second half of 2009 and that order books in the industry began to fill again. Retailer and
consumer sentiment has improved steadily since Q1 2009, and is now (as at April 2010)
back on a level last seen two years ago. The majority of retailers are “literally” positive
(+0.3 points) as for their current situation, while the consumer sentiment is still below
“neutral” (-12.3 Points). Also, the improved result of the European Purchasing Manager
Index (PMI) suggests that the economy in Europe is recovering: The worst is over! That
said, we need to differentiate between the specific situations in each sector: Whereas
wariness lingers in the building and construction industry, the service sector industry
appears to be in high spirits.
European Sentiment Indicator
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
Jan 07
Apr 07
Source: EuroStat, May 2010
Source: EuroStat May 2010
2009 2010e 2011e
Retail Sentiment Consumer Sentiment European Sentiment Indicator
Jul 07
Oct 07
Jan 08
Apr 08
Jul 08
Oct 08
Jan 09
Apr 09
Jul 09
Oct 09
Jan 10
Apr 10
140
100
60
20
-20