Poker Math That Matters

Aggression
Bluffing
We're going to begin examining the math behind aggression in
poker. We'll start with bluffing. The ability to bluff is a big part
of poker. We can use it to exploit opponents and also to help us
get value from our strong hands when playing against good,
observant opponents. Some have said "Bluff just enough to get
the job done." However, I've found this to be too narrow in
playing poker. How do you decide whether a bluff is a
profitable play or not?
You may remember the equation x / (x + y) where x is the size of
the bet we must call, and y is the size of the pot before our call.
Well, the equation to determine how often our opponent must
fold when we bluff is the same, except now x is the amount of
our bet instead of the amount of our call. So let’s say the pot is
$10, and we bluff the pot with a $10 bet.
x = $10
y = $10
10 / (10 + 10)
10 / 20 = 0.50
So, our opponent must fold more than 50% of the time to have a
+EV bluff. Now, let’s take this scenario to the next step. Our
opponent is deciding whether or not to call our pot-size bet. He
again uses the x / (x + y) method and comes up with the need to
be good 33% of the time.
93