Poker Math That Matters

How Much to Bet?
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So far, we’ve learned how to think about bet sizes by comparing
them to the pot. We’ve also learned how to think about bet sizes
on the river given our opponent’s range and what percentage of
his range will call different bet sizes. We’ve even learned how
to think about bet sizes in terms of chunking up our stack. Now
we’re going to look at sizing our bets given our opponent’s range
when we’re on the flop and turn. This is different than what
we’ve looked at so far because our opponent will almost always
have some amount of showdown equity. We have to consider
that if we do not bet, we give him a free chance to realize that
equity. What’s worse, we may even give him more money after
he improves. Letting an opponent draw for free and then paying
him more money when he hits is certainly an unattractive idea.
Figuring a good bet size does not a have an easy prescription.
Some have suggested that beginners default to a 2/3 pot bet
when they’re trying to get value for a hand. That’s a decent
default in my opinion. However, as we try to improve our game,
we want to move beyond a default bet size.
Thinking about maximizing value from your opponent’s range
always takes precedence over making bets to chunk in your
stack. Let’s look at an example of this.
You have A♦A♥ and raise preflop. The big blind calls. He’s a
very tight and uncreative player. You both started with $100.
The pot is $7.50, and the flop comes down A♠7♣2♥. Your
opponent checks. You look at your SPR and realize it’s 13. You
know you need to bet pot on three streets to get all-in without
overbetting on any street. However, you believe your
opponent’s range is comprised mostly of smaller pockets pairs.
That range does not have many hands that are willing to put all
their money in on this flop. The only legitimate hands that