Poker Math That Matters

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$Practical Poker Math$

money for a while and not even be concerned about it. Play at a level where you do not have to worry about losing buy-ins. The nice thing about this game is you get to decide how much you’re going to pay for your education. A beginner who decides to start at NL200 is going to pay more for his education than if he decided to learn at NL25. When you first come to the game, putting money on the back burner is really hard to do. After all, that’s why you’ve come. But it will be the best thing you can do to reach your goal. Also, realize that not losing money is quite an accomplishment in this game. This is because of the rake in poker. The rake is how casinos make their money having poker tables. The casino takes a certain percentage out of a pot. Many online casinos rake 5% of the pot. The rake is a larger percentage of your hourly earn at micro-stakes than it is at larger stakes. The rake often accounts for a 10 bb/100 win rate at micro-stakes games. So, if you’ve broken even over 10,000 hands of micro-stakes play, you’ve actually beat the game at around 10 bb/100. Congratulations! 21 There’s a healthy mix of luck and skill in poker that doesn’t allow the better player to win all the time. This is a good thing for poker. However, it does present some problems for beginning players. Beginning players often rely on their financial results to determine if they’re playing well or not. However, they may be playing well and still be losing badly. Or, they may be playing very poorly and still be winning at a very good rate. The results in poker can be very deceptive. Sometimes one of the worst things for a beginning player is to win a lot of money when they first get started playing the game. Now their expectations are far from reality, and they may become close-minded to studying the game and learning. They have it all figured out! It’s just a matter of time before reality will come knocking. Your thought process is the true way to measure your skills and progress. As you improve your thought
22 process, your financial results will take care of themselves over time. Quiz (Answers on pg. 155) 1. How much would a player make if he played NL10 for 5,000 hands at 12 bb/100? 2. If you played 10,000 hands but tilted off 1 buy-in, by how many bb/100 would that impact your win rate over that number of hands? 3. How should most players view the micro-stakes? 4. How can you determine how much you pay for your poker education? 5. Why can it be a bad thing when a new player makes a lot of money right away?
Page 2 and 3: Poker Math That Matters Simplifying
Page 4 and 5: Table of Contents Acknowledgements
Page 6 and 7: Set-Mining ........................
Page 8: Acknowledgements One of the most va
Page 11 and 12: xi poker fits my family's lifestyle
Page 13 and 14: 2 Throughout this book, you will se
Page 15 and 16: 4 Let’s talk a bit about how to d
Page 17 and 18: 6 want to just play, play, and play
Page 20 and 21: Measurements Your Surroundings Ther
Page 22 and 23: Another measurement to understand i
Page 24 and 25: those sections. For a beginning pla
Page 26 and 27: Thinking About Bets in No-Limit Hol
Page 28 and 29: Here's why this works. If we were t
Page 30 and 31: playing at a 6-max table, he’ll p
Page 34 and 35: Getting Started with Numbers Workin
Page 36 and 37: The last topic to cover in this sec
Page 38 and 39: doesn’t happen to complete our ra
Page 40 and 41: Expectation Value You’re walking
Page 42 and 43: 0.5 * (-$10) = (-$5) Now let’s do
Page 44: Quiz (Answers on pg. 158) 1. Someon
Page 47 and 48: 36 left to come on the river. What
Page 49 and 50: 38 Hero: 6♠7♠ Villain: A♣K♦
Page 51 and 52: 40 TT88A. Your opponent’s best ha
Page 53 and 54: 42 Gutshot straight draw (aka Gutte
Page 55 and 56: 44 you’ll need to add these toget
Page 57 and 58: 46 9. Hero: Q♦K♥ Villain: A♠J
Page 59 and 60: 48 19. Hero: A♠Q♣ Villain: 5♣
Page 61 and 62: 50 The 4/2 Rule I hope you’ve tak
Page 63 and 64: 52 pretty simple, right? But, of co
Page 65 and 66: 54 Let’s try one more. Hero: J♥
Page 67 and 68: 56 We can multiply these fractions
Page 69 and 70: 58 4. Hero: 9♦6♦ Villain: J♦J
Page 71 and 72: 60 So, the equation looks like this
Page 73 and 74: 62 We have a flush draw. The pot is
Page 75 and 76: 64 Quiz (Answers on pg. 174) For th
Page 77 and 78: 66 Implied Odds In this section, we
Page 79 and 80: 68 Table 6. Multiplication factor t
Page 81 and 82: 70 3. Hero: A♣Q♦ Villain: J♦J
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72 When we look at the hand range s
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74 Figure 7. Two groups containing
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76 the probability distribution of
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78 the suited A holdings villain co
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80 8. Hero: 5♥6♥ Villain: 99, Q
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82 section. As usual, we’ll talk
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84 Now, obviously we’re going to
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86 AA: 3 combinations- 12% KK: 3 co
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88 2. Hero: J♠A♠ Villain: QQ, K
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90 So, we lost $360 in Sklansky-buc
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92 Quiz (Answers on pg. 184) Calcul
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94 Take a second and think about th
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96 make that bet. Looking at the EV
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98 2. Hero: 5♠4♠ Villain: Fold
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100 Let's do a quick exercise to es
Page 113 and 114:
102 39x - 7.56 + 7.56x > 0 46.56x >
Page 115 and 116:
104 $81(0.24) = $19.44 2. Our shove
Page 117 and 118:
106 Quiz (Answers on pg. 188) Assum
Page 119 and 120:
108 Value-Betting Value-betting is
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110 and we’ll give him a $500 sta
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112 only the hands that beat us. Ou
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114 2. Hero: K♥Q♥ Villain: Call
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116 7. Hero is out of position: K
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118 and then consider your pot odds
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120 Quiz (Answers on pg. 197) 1. Ho
Page 133 and 134:
122 Seems like a small thing, right
Page 135 and 136:
124 all sorts of As, Js and Ts in h
Page 137 and 138:
126 Quiz (Answers on pg. 198) 1. Wh
Page 139 and 140:
128 First of all, the above calcula
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130 past hands may cause you to twe
Page 143 and 144:
132 would want to get the money in
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134 he can call profitably, if we h
Page 147 and 148:
136 It's obviously a mistake for hi
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138 4. Hero: Q♣Q♦ Villain: 8♣
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140 decision may be a totally diffe
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142 adjustment. So, in order to avo
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144 balanced poker every day of the
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146
Page 159 and 160:
148 Congratulations on making your
Page 161 and 162:
150 Comparing these two bet sizes,
Page 163 and 164:
152 So, we're still better of betti
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154 Your Surroundings Quiz Answers
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156 2. If you played 10,000 hands b
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158 Answer: Probability is 2 6 odds
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160 4. Someone holds out a deck of
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162 4. Hero: 5♣7♣ Villain: K♦
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164 9. Hero: Q♦K♥ Villain: A♠
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166 14. Hero: 7♠8♠ Villain: 9
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168 18. Hero: A♠5♠ Villain: A
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170 22. Hero: 4♠5♠ Villain: A
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172 The 4/2 Rule Quiz Answers 1. He
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174 6. Hero: Q♦Q♥ Villain: A♥
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176 4. Hero: 9♦6♦ Villain: J♦
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178 Combinations Quiz Answers 1. He
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180 7. Hero: 6♥7♠ Villain: QQ,
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182 2. Hero: J♠A♠ Villain: QQ,
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184 outs for 6% equity. Against 66,
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186 Bluffing Quiz Answers 1. Hero:
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188 Answer: A 1/3 pot bet must work
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190 $24 - $14 = $10 We’re risking
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192 0.57($20) + 0.43(-$20) = EV 11.
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194 4. Hero: A♦J♦ Villain has $
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196 6. Hero is out of position: K
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198 2. How often will you flop an o
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200 2. What are some of the factors
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202 5. When might we allow some dra
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204
Page 217 and 218:
206 Chopping Outs: Cards to come th
Page 219 and 220:
208 Offsuit: Hole cards that do not
Page 221 and 222:
Owen Gaines also wrote Hole Card Co
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