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Poker Math That Matters

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54<br />

Let’s try one more.<br />

Hero: J♥7♠<br />

Villain: A♦Q♠<br />

Board: A♥9♠T♦<br />

What is our equity in the hand at this point? We start with our<br />

outs. We only have four 8s as our outs. 4 We’re on the flop and<br />

going to see both the turn and river, so we multiply our outs<br />

times 4 and get an estimate of 16%. If you evaluate this in<br />

<strong>Poker</strong>stove, you’ll find the equity to be 18%. Our estimate is<br />

very close. Let’s have the turn come a 5♦ and check our equity<br />

there. We now take our four outs and multiply times 2 and get<br />

an estimate of 8%. Again, if you evaluate this in <strong>Poker</strong>stove,<br />

you’ll find the equity is 9%. So, you see we can get very close<br />

with the 4/2 rule.<br />

So, have this software out and deal out some hands. Count your<br />

outs, and estimate your equity. Then, enter the hand in<br />

<strong>Poker</strong>stove, and see how you did. It’s a good way to practice<br />

and get very quick at this. After some time, it’ll practically just<br />

be instinctive as you play.<br />

You’ll notice I’ve been stressing that when you’re on the flop,<br />

this equity applies only when you’re going to see this river. A<br />

common occurrence of this is when you get all the money in on<br />

the flop. However, if there is still betting to be had on the turn,<br />

you may make a common mistake. If you’re not all-in on the<br />

flop and there may be betting on the turn, you need to multiply<br />

your outs by two to only account for winning on the next card.<br />

4 We also have one combination of a backdoor straight with a K and Q<br />

on the board. Villain has a Q, so the backdoor is devalued a bit here.<br />

Since it's only one combination, I’m going to ignore it.

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