Poker Math That Matters

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adjustment. So, in order to avoid that detection, perhaps we only
call 90% of the time. We lose some immediate value by not
calling every time; however, we probably delay, maybe even
avoid, him detecting the high frequency of our calling. We start
to bring this teeter-tottering strategy to the center a bit. We’re
developing a more defensive strategy, and this finally brings us
to the idea of a balanced strategy.
A perfectly balanced strategy is a strategy that cannot be
exploited. If we want to measure how balanced a strategy is, we
can do so by finding out how exploitable it is. Again, let’s look
at our example where our opponent bets $10 into a $10 pot. We
know when he always bluffs or never bluffs his strategy is very
exploitable. However, as he approaches a 33% bluffing
frequency, the EV of any decision we make begins to approach
0. As a matter of fact, if he were to bluff exactly 33% of the
time, we would not be able to exploit him in any way. No
decision we make has any value. Even though he may be able to
make more money by changing his bluffing frequencies, making
this balanced play has defended him against being counterexploited.
This is the essence of balanced play, defense. Now,
let’s talk about balanced play a bit.
“Balanced” poker just sounds good, doesn’t it? The word
balance just tends to have positive connotations. But,
developing a perfectly balanced game of poker is not a
possibility. The game is simply too complicated for even today's
most advanced computers. However, approaching balanced
poker in certain situations is certainly a possibility. But, let’s
consider what we’ve learned so far and think about why we
would want to play a balanced game of poker? Remember that
exploitive play is when we're playing against opponents who
have a static strategy or predictably changing strategy. Against
opponents who do not fit this mold, we need to begin thinking