Poker Math That Matters

Appendix A
True EV and Evaluative EV
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Evaluative EV is not a term I’ve seen used in poker circles, but I
think it best describes what poker players are doing when they
evaluate the EV of different betting sizes. True EV and
evaluative EV are answering different questions. Evaluative EV
answers “What bet size is better?” True EV answers “How
much richer will I be after I make this wager?”
Let’s look at an example to see the distinction between these two
terms.
Hero: A♥A♠
Board: A♣A♦2♦J♠8♠
Looking at this example, we would typically analyze the
situation by only looking at the hands we felt had any chance of
calling. Perhaps that range looks like this:
Villain:
• Call $20 – KJ, 22, 88
• Call $80 – 22, 88
We have 18 combinations in this range. We could then analyze
the EV of each bet given this range assuming villain never raises.
The EV of betting $20 is:
0.67($20) = $13.40
The EV of betting $80 is:
0.33($80) = $26.40