Poker Math That Matters

108
Value-Betting
Value-betting is one of the most important skills in poker. The
term itself is a little bit tricky because we’re always thinking of
value when we’re betting. The reason we bluff is because we
believe it has more value than not bluffing. However, the term
value-betting is reserved for betting when we believe we have
the best hand. We’re trying to extract as much value as we can
when we actually have the goods.
There are common misconceptions about value-betting I’d like
to address. Often times I hear players say “I want worse hands
to call.” Or they say “I’m trying to not lose my customer.” It’s
important to realize that when we’re betting for value, we’re still
executing the second key to good poker. The goal is to
maximize value. Sometimes we maximize value by getting
small, steady payouts and other times we maximize value by
getting the infrequent, big payoff. Let’s use an extreme example
to see this at work.
Hero: A♦J♦
Villain:
Call up to $8 – A9, A2, AJ, AQ, K♦Q♦
Call all-in for $500 - K♦Q♦
Board: 2♣5♦8♦A♥7♦
We’ll pretend that villain has $500 left on the river. The villain
will never raise any of our bets; he’ll call with his entire range.
However, he’ll only call up to $8 with his entire range. But with
his flush, he’ll put the rest of his money in the pot. So, we’ll say
we can only make either an $8 bet or a $500 bet. Notice the
villain has 29 combinations in his range. His flush hand is only
one combination, which represents about 3.5% of his total range.