Poker Math That Matters

Set-Mining
127
Sets are one of the biggest money makers in any poker player’s
database of hands. They have the potential to win some massive
pots. Set-mining can be very profitable. Looking back to Table
11, you’ll see that a pocket-pair flops a set or better about 12%
of the time. Many players have gotten into the habit of calling
with any pocket pair and then simply folding if they do not flop a
set. However, if they do flop a set, they do their best to get all
the money in the middle. Let’s begin approaching set-mining
through the most optimistic eyes.
Thinking in terms of ratios, the odds against a pocket pair
flopping a set are about 8:1. So, let’s assume that every time you
flop a set, you’ll be able to get all-in. Let’s say your opponent
raised to $1 preflop. You called the $1 preflop with the idea of
flopping your set or folding. Let’s find out how much money
you’d have to win in order to break even.
0.12($x) + 0.88(-$1) > 0
0.12x - $0.88 > 0
0.12x > $0.88
x > $7.33
In order to break even, you’d have to get about $6.33 postflop
since his $1 is in preflop too. So, if we could call with a pocket
pair and win our opponent’s stack every time, we’d always have
to make sure he started with about 8 times more than what we
had to pay to see the flop, and we’d be all set. But, it’s not that
easy. There are many factors that make the need for our implied
odds to get higher and higher.