Poker Math That Matters

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$Practical Poker Math$

Appendix B When Villain is +EV We've learned that when our opponent has a -EV call, we profit. However, what if he has a +EV call? Does that mean we're losing money by betting? If so, should we bet at all? Let's look at an example. Hero: A♣A♠ Villain: 5♦6♦ Board: 3♠4♠K♥Q♥ The pot is $10, and we have $2 left in our stack. Villain has 18% equity. Let's look at villain's EV if we shove. 0.18($12) + .88(-$2) = EV $2.16 - $1.76 = $0.40 Villain makes money with his call. <strong>That</strong> means we're losing money. Does that mean we shouldn't bet? Let's work it out. We'll look at two options: checking and shoving. If we check, we're giving villain a free chance at the $10 pot. We win the $10 pot 82% of the time. 0.82($10) = $8.20 If we bet, we own 82% of a $14 pot that costs us $2 to create. 0.82($14) - $2 = $9.48 151
152 So, we're still better of betting than checking; however, we would make more ($10) if he would fold. Just because villain has a +EV call does not mean he wants us to bet. Just because villain has a +EV call does not mean we shouldn't bet. But, if he has a +EV call, we prefer he folds because we make more money.
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Poker Math That Matters Simplifying
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Table of Contents Acknowledgements
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Set-Mining ........................
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Acknowledgements One of the most va
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xi poker fits my family's lifestyle
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2 Throughout this book, you will se
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4 Let’s talk a bit about how to d
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6 want to just play, play, and play
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Measurements Your Surroundings Ther
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Another measurement to understand i
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those sections. For a beginning pla
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Thinking About Bets in No-Limit Hol
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Here's why this works. If we were t
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playing at a 6-max table, he’ll p
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money for a while and not even be c
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Getting Started with Numbers Workin
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The last topic to cover in this sec
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doesn’t happen to complete our ra
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Expectation Value You’re walking
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0.5 * (-$10) = (-$5) Now let’s do
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Quiz (Answers on pg. 158) 1. Someon
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36 left to come on the river. What
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38 Hero: 6♠7♠ Villain: A♣K♦
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40 TT88A. Your opponent’s best ha
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42 Gutshot straight draw (aka Gutte
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44 you’ll need to add these toget
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46 9. Hero: Q♦K♥ Villain: A♠J
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48 19. Hero: A♠Q♣ Villain: 5♣
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50 The 4/2 Rule I hope you’ve tak
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52 pretty simple, right? But, of co
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54 Let’s try one more. Hero: J♥
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56 We can multiply these fractions
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58 4. Hero: 9♦6♦ Villain: J♦J
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60 So, the equation looks like this
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62 We have a flush draw. The pot is
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64 Quiz (Answers on pg. 174) For th
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66 Implied Odds In this section, we
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68 Table 6. Multiplication factor t
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70 3. Hero: A♣Q♦ Villain: J♦J
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72 When we look at the hand range s
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74 Figure 7. Two groups containing
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76 the probability distribution of
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78 the suited A holdings villain co
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80 8. Hero: 5♥6♥ Villain: 99, Q
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82 section. As usual, we’ll talk
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84 Now, obviously we’re going to
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86 AA: 3 combinations- 12% KK: 3 co
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88 2. Hero: J♠A♠ Villain: QQ, K
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90 So, we lost $360 in Sklansky-buc
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92 Quiz (Answers on pg. 184) Calcul
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94 Take a second and think about th
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96 make that bet. Looking at the EV
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98 2. Hero: 5♠4♠ Villain: Fold
Page 111 and 112: 100 Let's do a quick exercise to es
Page 113 and 114: 102 39x - 7.56 + 7.56x > 0 46.56x >
Page 115 and 116: 104 $81(0.24) = $19.44 2. Our shove
Page 117 and 118: 106 Quiz (Answers on pg. 188) Assum
Page 119 and 120: 108 Value-Betting Value-betting is
Page 121 and 122: 110 and we’ll give him a $500 sta
Page 123 and 124: 112 only the hands that beat us. Ou
Page 125 and 126: 114 2. Hero: K♥Q♥ Villain: Call
Page 127 and 128: 116 7. Hero is out of position: K
Page 129 and 130: 118 and then consider your pot odds
Page 131 and 132: 120 Quiz (Answers on pg. 197) 1. Ho
Page 133 and 134: 122 Seems like a small thing, right
Page 135 and 136: 124 all sorts of As, Js and Ts in h
Page 137 and 138: 126 Quiz (Answers on pg. 198) 1. Wh
Page 139 and 140: 128 First of all, the above calcula
Page 141 and 142: 130 past hands may cause you to twe
Page 143 and 144: 132 would want to get the money in
Page 145 and 146: 134 he can call profitably, if we h
Page 147 and 148: 136 It's obviously a mistake for hi
Page 149 and 150: 138 4. Hero: Q♣Q♦ Villain: 8♣
Page 151 and 152: 140 decision may be a totally diffe
Page 153 and 154: 142 adjustment. So, in order to avo
Page 155 and 156: 144 balanced poker every day of the
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Page 159 and 160: 148 Congratulations on making your
Page 161: 150 Comparing these two bet sizes,
Page 165 and 166: 154 Your Surroundings Quiz Answers
Page 167 and 168: 156 2. If you played 10,000 hands b
Page 169 and 170: 158 Answer: Probability is 2 6 odds
Page 171 and 172: 160 4. Someone holds out a deck of
Page 173 and 174: 162 4. Hero: 5♣7♣ Villain: K♦
Page 175 and 176: 164 9. Hero: Q♦K♥ Villain: A♠
Page 177 and 178: 166 14. Hero: 7♠8♠ Villain: 9
Page 179 and 180: 168 18. Hero: A♠5♠ Villain: A
Page 181 and 182: 170 22. Hero: 4♠5♠ Villain: A
Page 183 and 184: 172 The 4/2 Rule Quiz Answers 1. He
Page 185 and 186: 174 6. Hero: Q♦Q♥ Villain: A♥
Page 187 and 188: 176 4. Hero: 9♦6♦ Villain: J♦
Page 189 and 190: 178 Combinations Quiz Answers 1. He
Page 191 and 192: 180 7. Hero: 6♥7♠ Villain: QQ,
Page 193 and 194: 182 2. Hero: J♠A♠ Villain: QQ,
Page 195 and 196: 184 outs for 6% equity. Against 66,
Page 197 and 198: 186 Bluffing Quiz Answers 1. Hero:
Page 199 and 200: 188 Answer: A 1/3 pot bet must work
Page 201 and 202: 190 $24 - $14 = $10 We’re risking
Page 203 and 204: 192 0.57($20) + 0.43(-$20) = EV 11.
Page 205 and 206: 194 4. Hero: A♦J♦ Villain has $
Page 207 and 208: 196 6. Hero is out of position: K
Page 209 and 210: 198 2. How often will you flop an o
Page 211 and 212: 200 2. What are some of the factors
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202 5. When might we allow some dra
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204
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206 Chopping Outs: Cards to come th
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208 Offsuit: Hole cards that do not
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Owen Gaines also wrote Hole Card Co
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Poker Math That Matters

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