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the probability distribution of these hands to know how often<br />
we’re going to win. Let’s break it down.<br />
We'll start by analyzing the hands that beat us. How many<br />
combinations of AQ and TT are there? We have a Q, and there’s<br />
one on the board. So there are only two Qs and four As to make<br />
AQ.<br />
4 x 2 = 8<br />
There is one T on the board, so there are three combinations of<br />
TT. There are 11 combinations that beat us (8 + 3).<br />
Now, let’s look at the hands we beat. How many combinations<br />
of AK are there? We have a K, so there are three Ks and four<br />
As.<br />
4 x 3 = 12<br />
There are 11 combinations that beat us, and 12 combinations we<br />
beat. This is a total of 23 combinations. We can divide the<br />
combinations of AK by the total combinations to see how often<br />
we will win if we call.<br />
12/23 = 0.52<br />
We will win about 52% of the time. We only need to be good<br />
33% to break even, so we have an easy call.<br />
Doing this type of math at the table isn’t a common occurrence<br />
for me. I’ve put in a lot of hours away from the table working on<br />
these types of situations and have developed a good feel for<br />
different situations. The best way to do this is to be active in<br />
poker forums like dragthebar.com and find spots to work these<br />
types of problems out. The more you do these, the more you’ll<br />
find yourself getting very good at estimating these situations in<br />
real time. You can even mark hands during a session and
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