Poker Math That Matters

190
$24 – $14 = $10
We’re risking $10 to win $10. This is x to win x, so
we’ll need to have him fold more than 50% of the time.
4. Hero: Q♠A♠
Villain:
Fold - 89, 99, TT
Call - AJ, J9, 33
Board: 6♠3♥8♥J♠
Pot was $10. We shove $25. Is a shove profitable?
Answer: We have to estimate our equity against his
calling range. Against 33, we have 7 outs for 14%
equity. Against AJ, we have 12 outs for 24% equity.
Against J9, we have 15 outs for 30% equity.
• 33: 14% – 3 combinations
• AJ: 24% – 9 combinations
• J9: 30% – 12 combinations
We can easily see the average of AJ and J9 is going to be
about 28%. This gives 21 combinations at 28%. The 33
hand is about 12% of the total range. So, we need to
find 88% of the way up from 14 to 28. We can easily
see we’ll be just slightly lower than 28 at about 26%.
The final pot will be $60.