Poker Math That Matters

109
His pair hands represent 96.5% of his range. If our goal is to not
lose a customer, it’s obvious which bet size we should make. If
we bet $8, we keep our customer every time. Also, if our goal is
to get worse hands to call, we get them all to call with the $8 bet.
However, let’s examine the EV of both of these bets.
The $8 bet gets called 100% of the time, so, the EV of the $8 bet
is $8.
$8(1) = $8
The $500 bet only gets called about 3.5% of the time.
$500(.035) = $17.50
The EV of the $500 bet is $17.50. This is more than double the
EV of the $8 bet even though it’s getting called much less often.
So, in this extreme example, we are better off going for that big
payoff.
Now let’s tweak the example a bit. We’ll give the villain $100
left. Now look at our EV of a $100 bet.
$100(0.035) = $3.50
Here the EV of the $8 bet is more than double the big payoff.
So, when he has $100 left, we’re better off going for the small,
steady payout. But, not every example is this cut and dry.
Much like choosing your bluff sizes, choosing your value bet
sizes can be tricky business. The best way to improve is through
analyzing situations away from the table and getting used to
common situations. That way you can quickly recognize those
situations when you come across them and will know what to do.
Now, let’s say villain will always raise with his flush, but still
will always call with his pairs. His raise will be an all-in raise,