Poker Math That Matters

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2. Rolling a 2 has an outcome of winning $3. Rolling a 1,
3, 4, 5 or 6 all have an outcome of losing $1.
Rolling a 1: 0.166 * (-$1) = (-$0.166)
Rolling a 2: 0.166 * $3 = $0.498
Rolling a 3: 0.166 * (-$1) = (-$0.166)
Rolling a 4: 0.166 * (-$1) = (-$0.166)
Rolling a 5: 0.166 * (-$1) = (-$0.166)
Rolling a 6: 0.166 * (-$1) = (-$0.166)
3. Let’s add together the results from step two.
(-$0.166)+ $0.498 + (-$0.166) + (-$0.166) + (-$0.166) +
(-$0.166) = (-$0.332)
We come up with about negative 33 cents a roll. The EV is
below zero, so it’s a -EV bet. These are not the types of bets we
want to take. We can also see the power of mass-producing -EV
bets. If we could roll this five times a minute, we would lose
$1.65 every minute. Rolling at this pace for an hour would give
us a rate of losing $99 an hour. This doesn’t sound like the type
of bet I want to take!
Making money in poker is all about being involved in +EV plays
as often as possible and avoiding -EV plays as often as possible.