Poker Math That Matters

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$Practical Poker Math$

3. Hero: K♥Q♥ Villain: Call $20: QT, AJ, QJ, Q7 Bluff raise (you’ll fold): 55 Board: Q♠2♣9♥J♠7♦ The pot is $20. Is a $20 value bet profitable? 193 Answer: Do not be discouraged if you didn’t get this one. It’s designed to show the impact of villain stealing from us. Again, QT and AJ give our bet value and total 20 combinations. We lose to QJ and Q7. Those total 12 combinations. We lose to 55 as well, which is 6 combinations. So, the hands that beat us total 18 combinations. We actually have more combinations of hands we beat, which is more than 50%. So, we may be thinking we need to bet. However, what we need to consider is the villain is actually stealing the $20 pot from us as well as our bet. So, our EV would look like this. QT and AJ: 53% QJ and Q7: 31% 55: 16% 0.53($20) + 0.31(-$20) + 0.16(-$40) 10.6 – 6.2 – 6.40 = (-$2) So, even though the villain is calling with more than 50% worse hand, we’re still not +EV with our bet because he’s stealing the pot from us.
194 4. Hero: A♦J♦ Villain has $60 left: Call up to $20 – A9, AT, AK, AQ, J9, JT, QJ Call all-in for $60 – AK, J9, JT, QJ Board: 2♣5♦J♥A♥J♠ Which bet is more profitable? Answer: Villain will call the $20 with his entire range, which contains 44 combinations. We beat all of those. He will call the larger $60 bet with 20 of those combinations. <strong>That</strong>’s 46% of his range. The EV of the $20 bet is $20 since we get called every time and always win. The EV of the $60 bet is: 0.46($60) = $27.60 The $60 bet is more profitable.
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Poker Math That Matters Simplifying
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Table of Contents Acknowledgements
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Set-Mining ........................
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Acknowledgements One of the most va
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xi poker fits my family's lifestyle
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2 Throughout this book, you will se
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4 Let’s talk a bit about how to d
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6 want to just play, play, and play
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Measurements Your Surroundings Ther
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Another measurement to understand i
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those sections. For a beginning pla
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Thinking About Bets in No-Limit Hol
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Here's why this works. If we were t
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playing at a 6-max table, he’ll p
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money for a while and not even be c
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Getting Started with Numbers Workin
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The last topic to cover in this sec
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doesn’t happen to complete our ra
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Expectation Value You’re walking
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0.5 * (-$10) = (-$5) Now let’s do
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Quiz (Answers on pg. 158) 1. Someon
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36 left to come on the river. What
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38 Hero: 6♠7♠ Villain: A♣K♦
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40 TT88A. Your opponent’s best ha
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42 Gutshot straight draw (aka Gutte
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44 you’ll need to add these toget
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46 9. Hero: Q♦K♥ Villain: A♠J
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48 19. Hero: A♠Q♣ Villain: 5♣
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50 The 4/2 Rule I hope you’ve tak
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52 pretty simple, right? But, of co
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54 Let’s try one more. Hero: J♥
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56 We can multiply these fractions
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58 4. Hero: 9♦6♦ Villain: J♦J
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60 So, the equation looks like this
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62 We have a flush draw. The pot is
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64 Quiz (Answers on pg. 174) For th
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66 Implied Odds In this section, we
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68 Table 6. Multiplication factor t
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70 3. Hero: A♣Q♦ Villain: J♦J
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72 When we look at the hand range s
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74 Figure 7. Two groups containing
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76 the probability distribution of
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78 the suited A holdings villain co
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80 8. Hero: 5♥6♥ Villain: 99, Q
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82 section. As usual, we’ll talk
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84 Now, obviously we’re going to
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86 AA: 3 combinations- 12% KK: 3 co
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88 2. Hero: J♠A♠ Villain: QQ, K
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90 So, we lost $360 in Sklansky-buc
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92 Quiz (Answers on pg. 184) Calcul
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94 Take a second and think about th
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96 make that bet. Looking at the EV
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98 2. Hero: 5♠4♠ Villain: Fold
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100 Let's do a quick exercise to es
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102 39x - 7.56 + 7.56x > 0 46.56x >
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104 $81(0.24) = $19.44 2. Our shove
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106 Quiz (Answers on pg. 188) Assum
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108 Value-Betting Value-betting is
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110 and we’ll give him a $500 sta
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112 only the hands that beat us. Ou
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114 2. Hero: K♥Q♥ Villain: Call
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116 7. Hero is out of position: K
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118 and then consider your pot odds
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120 Quiz (Answers on pg. 197) 1. Ho
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122 Seems like a small thing, right
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124 all sorts of As, Js and Ts in h
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126 Quiz (Answers on pg. 198) 1. Wh
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128 First of all, the above calcula
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130 past hands may cause you to twe
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132 would want to get the money in
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134 he can call profitably, if we h
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136 It's obviously a mistake for hi
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138 4. Hero: Q♣Q♦ Villain: 8♣
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140 decision may be a totally diffe
Page 153 and 154: 142 adjustment. So, in order to avo
Page 155 and 156: 144 balanced poker every day of the
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Page 159 and 160: 148 Congratulations on making your
Page 161 and 162: 150 Comparing these two bet sizes,
Page 163 and 164: 152 So, we're still better of betti
Page 165 and 166: 154 Your Surroundings Quiz Answers
Page 167 and 168: 156 2. If you played 10,000 hands b
Page 169 and 170: 158 Answer: Probability is 2 6 odds
Page 171 and 172: 160 4. Someone holds out a deck of
Page 173 and 174: 162 4. Hero: 5♣7♣ Villain: K♦
Page 175 and 176: 164 9. Hero: Q♦K♥ Villain: A♠
Page 177 and 178: 166 14. Hero: 7♠8♠ Villain: 9
Page 179 and 180: 168 18. Hero: A♠5♠ Villain: A
Page 181 and 182: 170 22. Hero: 4♠5♠ Villain: A
Page 183 and 184: 172 The 4/2 Rule Quiz Answers 1. He
Page 185 and 186: 174 6. Hero: Q♦Q♥ Villain: A♥
Page 187 and 188: 176 4. Hero: 9♦6♦ Villain: J♦
Page 189 and 190: 178 Combinations Quiz Answers 1. He
Page 191 and 192: 180 7. Hero: 6♥7♠ Villain: QQ,
Page 193 and 194: 182 2. Hero: J♠A♠ Villain: QQ,
Page 195 and 196: 184 outs for 6% equity. Against 66,
Page 197 and 198: 186 Bluffing Quiz Answers 1. Hero:
Page 199 and 200: 188 Answer: A 1/3 pot bet must work
Page 201 and 202: 190 $24 - $14 = $10 We’re risking
Page 203: 192 0.57($20) + 0.43(-$20) = EV 11.
Page 207 and 208: 196 6. Hero is out of position: K
Page 209 and 210: 198 2. How often will you flop an o
Page 211 and 212: 200 2. What are some of the factors
Page 213 and 214: 202 5. When might we allow some dra
Page 215 and 216: 204
Page 217 and 218: 206 Chopping Outs: Cards to come th
Page 219 and 220: 208 Offsuit: Hole cards that do not
Page 221 and 222: Owen Gaines also wrote Hole Card Co
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