Poker Math That Matters

Given an assumption of averaging 80% equity when getting allin,
our opponent would need to stack with almost 11 times what
we had to call preflop. However, there’s more to the story.
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When our opponent starts with KK, and we flop a set, an A will
also hit the flop about 16% of the time. We may be very
unlikely to get our opponent’s stack now since he may be afraid
we have an A. Of course, this gets worse when he holds QQ as a
K and/or an A may flop. This cuts down on our implied odds.
You also need to consider how well you play postflop. Will you
have a hard time folding 88 when the flop comes 67s3, and the
villain bets pot? Do you read hands well enough to handle these
situations in a way that maximizes your earnings and/or
minimizes your losses? Also, many times you’ll be out of
position postflop, and it will be difficult to extract money from
much of your opponent’s range.
A good tip here is to set-mine when you know your opponent’s
range is strong. If your opponent is a tight player and raises
from early position, he’s likely to have a very strong hand range.
If your opponent is a loose and aggressive player and raises from
late position, his hand range is likely quite weak. The stronger
hand ranges will find more reasons to get all-in on many more
flops than a weaker hand range.
Some players have recommended set-mining only if your
opponent has started with 25 times the amount you have to call
preflop. While I think this is a bit excessive, I think we’ve seen
the point clearly. We need more implied odds to strictly setmine
than we may think by looking at the odds of flopping a set
or better. If you play well postflop and have a good handle on
your opponent’s strategy, my recommendation would be making
sure your opponent has about 15 times what you must call
preflop. This is just a generalization, and table conditions and