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104<br />
$81(0.24) = $19.44<br />
2. Our shove is $27.<br />
$27 - $20 = $7<br />
3. We’re risking $7 to win $39.<br />
7 / 46 = 0.15<br />
We come up with 15%, which is almost exactly what we need.<br />
This shortcut can be done very quickly rounding like this and is<br />
very effective. Let’s look at one more example using this<br />
shortcut.<br />
Let’s say you’re in a hand preflop against an aggressive player.<br />
You’ve been fighting a lot preflop with raises and reraises. You<br />
both start with $100. You have KJo in the big blind. He open<br />
raises on the button to $3. You reraise to $8. He reraises you to<br />
$25. You know he can have a lot of monster hands here, but you<br />
also believe he’s bluffing a lot as well. Calling here isn’t an<br />
attractive play because you miss so often on the flop, do not have<br />
the initiative and are out of position. You’d like to find out how<br />
often he has to fold in order to have a +EV shove. This is a<br />
preflop semi-bluff shove.<br />
The pot is currently $33. You have $92 left in your stack.<br />
Remember if you shove here, you will certainly have showdown<br />
equity. So, shoving isn’t risking $92 to win $33. We have to<br />
find out what we’re actually risking. Let’s use our shortcut. I’m<br />
not going to show the math here and just display how I would<br />
think in the hand.<br />
1. To start this, we need to estimate our equity verses his<br />
all-in range. Let’s assume he’ll call our shove with TT+
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