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Poker Math That Matters

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104<br />

$81(0.24) = $19.44<br />

2. Our shove is $27.<br />

$27 - $20 = $7<br />

3. We’re risking $7 to win $39.<br />

7 / 46 = 0.15<br />

We come up with 15%, which is almost exactly what we need.<br />

This shortcut can be done very quickly rounding like this and is<br />

very effective. Let’s look at one more example using this<br />

shortcut.<br />

Let’s say you’re in a hand preflop against an aggressive player.<br />

You’ve been fighting a lot preflop with raises and reraises. You<br />

both start with $100. You have KJo in the big blind. He open<br />

raises on the button to $3. You reraise to $8. He reraises you to<br />

$25. You know he can have a lot of monster hands here, but you<br />

also believe he’s bluffing a lot as well. Calling here isn’t an<br />

attractive play because you miss so often on the flop, do not have<br />

the initiative and are out of position. You’d like to find out how<br />

often he has to fold in order to have a +EV shove. This is a<br />

preflop semi-bluff shove.<br />

The pot is currently $33. You have $92 left in your stack.<br />

Remember if you shove here, you will certainly have showdown<br />

equity. So, shoving isn’t risking $92 to win $33. We have to<br />

find out what we’re actually risking. Let’s use our shortcut. I’m<br />

not going to show the math here and just display how I would<br />

think in the hand.<br />

1. To start this, we need to estimate our equity verses his<br />

all-in range. Let’s assume he’ll call our shove with TT+

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