Poker Math That Matters

Hero: A♠2♥
Villain: A♣7♦
Board: A♥Q♦6♣3♠
You’re behind since his 7 kicker plays. How many outs do you
have? Well, you certainly have the three 2s left to give you two
pair. So, that’s three outs to a win. However, what happens if
the river is a 3? At that point you have AA33Q, and so does
your opponent! You tie and will chop the pot. So, you have
three outs to a chop with the 3s. The same is true if the river is a
6. You will have AA66Q, and so will he. This is another chop.
You have now have a total of six outs to a chop. What if the
river is a Q? Think carefully. At this point, you’ll have
AAQQ6; however, your opponent has AAQQ7, so he wins. His
7 now plays, and he has you outkicked. So, in this hand you
have three outs to a win, and six outs to a chop.
When you have the worst hand and are trying to hit an out, it’s
called drawing. You’re on a draw. Table 4 shows common
draws and the number of outs to a better hand than you currently
hold.
Table 4. Common draws.
Draw Outs
Gutshot (aka Gutter or Belly Buster) 4
Pair (not pocket pair) 5
Open-Ended Straight Draw (OESD) 8
Double Gutter (aka Double Belly Buster) 8
Four-flush (aka Flush Draw) 9
Open-Ended Straight Flush Draw (OESFD) 15
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