Poker Math That Matters

7. Hero is out of position: K♥Q♥
Villain:
If you bet:
Call $20 bet: QT, J9
If you check:
Bet $20: QT, QJ, J9, AQ
Board: Q♠2♣9♥J♠7♦
197
The pot is $20 before anyone bets. Villain only has $20
left in his stack. What’s the best action to take?
Answer: If we bet, villain calls with eight hands we beat
and nine hands that beat us. He’s only calling with 47%
worse hands, so betting is –EV.
If we check, villain is betting the pot. We’d need to be
good 33% of the time to call. Of his betting range, we
only beat QT, which is 8 combinations. The rest of his
betting range consists of 25 combinations.
8 / 25 = 0.32
Check/calling is –EV. The best move here is to
check/fold.
A Bit of Memory Quiz Answers
1. How often will you flop a four-flush with suited hole
cards?
Answer: 11%